TENTitans
7-6
17
TBD
MetLife Stadium
40°F
6 mph
0
NYGGiants
5-8
TBD
MetLife Stadium
40°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
7
0
7
3
17
Giants
0
0
0
0
0
Spread
-2.5
Total
UNDER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
301
260
Total Plays
67
63
Yards / Play
4.5
4.1
EPA / Play
+0.02
-0.32
Passing Yards
86
213
Comp/Att
13/21(62%)
21/44(48%)
Yards / Pass
4.1
4.8
EPA / Pass
-0.15
-0.26
Rushing Yards
215
47
Rush Attempts
45
16
Yards / Rush
4.8
2.9
EPA / Rush
+0.17
-0.28
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
15
Passing 1st downs
6
12
Rushing 1st downs
14
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
36%
19%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
16
Red Zone %
67%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-7.00
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-8
-16
Sack EPA
-1.61
-6.57
Penalties
4
10
Penalty Yards
35
58
Penalty EPA
-4.40
-8.49
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
+2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
+1.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model46.7%
Spread Pick
Giants+2.5
Expected Value
+4.4%
Cover Probability
54.7%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+85
Home nfelo
1,492
Away nfelo
1,492
Home Field
+87.8
Base HFA
+57.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.1
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
-3.7
Home QB Adjustment
+0.2
Away QB Adjustment
+3.8
Market Regression
-19.9
Final Difference
22.7
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
M. Mariota
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+3.8
E. Manning
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+0.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
23
Yards / Game
25
24
Passing Yards / Game
27
18
Rushing Yards / Game
6
21
EPA
EPA / Play
20
28
EPA / Pass
24
26
EPA / Rush
16
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
10
Interceptions / Game
14
7
Fumbles / Game
3
19
Turnover EPA / Game
18
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
27
4th Down Efficiency
15
32
RZ Efficiency
23
13
Giants Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
3
Yards / Game
16
7
Passing Yards / Game
8
7
Rushing Yards / Game
24
19
EPA
EPA / Play
13
13
EPA / Pass
15
14
EPA / Rush
11
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
10
Interceptions / Game
14
23
Fumbles / Game
3
19
Turnover EPA / Game
22
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
10
4th Down Efficiency
10
15
RZ Efficiency
29
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Giants
4-6
SU
6-3-1
ATS
6-4
O/U