TENTitans
6-3
30
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
53°F
6 mph
24
BALRavens
6-3
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
53°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Titans
7
3
3
11
6
30
Ravens
3
11
7
3
0
24
Spread
+6
Total
OVER
50.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
425
308
Total Plays
69
64
Yards / Play
6.2
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.22
+0.09
Passing Yards
250
179
Comp/Att
23/32(72%)
17/30(57%)
Yards / Pass
7.8
6.0
EPA / Pass
+0.36
+0.22
Rushing Yards
175
129
Rush Attempts
35
33
Yards / Rush
5.0
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.01
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
21
Passing 1st downs
16
9
Rushing 1st downs
8
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
42%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
5
9
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
40%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.36
-2.76
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-16
-9
Sack EPA
-3.30
-1.56
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
--
81
Penalty EPA
--
-7.70
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+122
Home nfelo
1,660
Away nfelo
1,535
Home Field
+7.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+1.1
Net QB Adjustment
-10.6
Home QB Adjustment
-1.2
Away QB Adjustment
+9.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+9.4
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+4.4
Team Elo Adj
-1.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
1
Yards / Game
4
6
Passing Yards / Game
15
1
Rushing Yards / Game
2
6
EPA
EPA / Play
3
4
EPA / Pass
4
7
EPA / Rush
2
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
15
Interceptions / Game
3
27
Fumbles / Game
2
8
Turnover EPA / Game
31
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
2
4th Down Efficiency
6
10
RZ Efficiency
2
15
Ravens Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
24
Yards / Game
19
28
Passing Yards / Game
30
4
Rushing Yards / Game
1
24
EPA
EPA / Play
7
28
EPA / Pass
19
27
EPA / Rush
1
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
26
Interceptions / Game
14
7
Fumbles / Game
16
21
Turnover EPA / Game
25
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
32
4th Down Efficiency
16
19
RZ Efficiency
17
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
6-4
SU
3-7
ATS
7-2-1
O/U
Ravens
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U