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WAS logo

Washington Commanders

2016 Season

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
8-7-1
nfelo Rating
15627th
Point Diff / Game
+0.817th
Net EPA / Play
+0.02014th

2016 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
PIT logo
PIT
L
16-38
-22
+2.5
L
-13
2
DAL logo
DAL
L
23-27
-4
-3.5
L
-7
3
NYG logo
NYG@
W
29-27
+2
+3.5
W
5
4
CLE logo
CLE
W
31-20
+11
-7.5
W
5
5
BAL logo
BAL@
W
16-10
+6
+4
W
11
6
PHI logo
PHI
W
27-20
+7
+3
W
8
7
DET logo
DET@
L
17-20
-3
-1
L
12
8
CIN logo
CIN@
T
27-27
0
+3
W
15
9BYE WEEK
10
MIN logo
MIN
W
26-20
+6
-2.5
W
8
11
GB logo
GB
W
42-24
+18
-3
W
34
12
DAL logo
DAL@
L
26-31
-5
+5.5
W
16
13
ARI logo
ARI@
L
23-31
-8
+2.5
L
-9
14
PHI logo
PHI@
W
27-22
+5
-2.5
W
2
15
CAR logo
CAR
L
15-26
-11
-7
L
-14
16
CHI logo
CHI@
W
41-21
+20
-3
W
17
17
NYG logo
NYG
L
10-19
-9
-9
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.08
5th
EPA / Pass
+0.18
5th
EPA / Rush
-0.02
6th
Def. EPA / Play
+0.06
27th
EPA / Pass
+0.14
26th
EPA / Rush
-0.02
25th
Sack EPA
-3.19
8th
Turnover EPA
-6.11
15th
Point Differential
+0.8
17th
Points For
24.8
11th
Points Against
23.9
18th
Total Yards
403.4
3rd
Passing Yards
215.4
12th
Rushing Yards
106.0
20th
Total Yards Allowed
377.9
28th
Passing Allowed
258.1
30th
Rushing Allowed
119.8
24th

Conversions For

3rd Down
45%
5th
4th Down
50%
14th
Red Zone
46%
30th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
47%
32nd
4th Down
56%
20th
Red Zone
58%
25th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.3
13th
Created
1.3
20th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.8
14th
Created
0.8
18th

Fumbles

Lost
0.6
16th
Created
0.5
20th