SF49ers
0-5
24
TBD
FedExField
68°F
4 mph
26
WASCommanders
2-2
TBD
FedExField
68°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
0
7
10
7
24
Commanders
7
10
0
9
26
Spread
+11
Total
OVER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
335
419
Total Plays
70
71
Yards / Play
4.8
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.03
Passing Yards
250
325
Comp/Att
23/47(49%)
25/37(68%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
8.8
EPA / Pass
-0.02
+0.26
Rushing Yards
85
94
Rush Attempts
20
33
Yards / Rush
4.3
2.8
EPA / Rush
+0.22
-0.29
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
25
Passing 1st downs
12
17
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
35%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
17
14
Red Zone %
100%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-0.12
-9.42
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-29
-5
Sack EPA
-5.53
-0.93
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
40
43
Penalty EPA
-6.36
-6.60
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-11.0
Model
-11.0
Win Probability
Market81.7%
Model81.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+236
Home nfelo
1,505
Away nfelo
1,392
Home Field
+104.5
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+16.4
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+30.8
Net QB Adjustment
+18.3
Home QB Adjustment
+11.6
Away QB Adjustment
-6.7
Market Regression
+24.5
Final Difference
259.9
Model Spread
-11.0
Quarterbacks
B. Hoyer
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-6.7
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+11.6
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
27
Yards / Game
12
22
Passing Yards / Game
11
15
Rushing Yards / Game
20
32
EPA
EPA / Play
16
13
EPA / Pass
17
8
EPA / Rush
9
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
12
Interceptions / Game
23
9
Fumbles / Game
13
9
Turnover EPA / Game
10
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
7
4th Down Efficiency
19
23
RZ Efficiency
28
11
Commanders Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
25
Yards / Game
17
25
Passing Yards / Game
14
4
Rushing Yards / Game
28
22
EPA
EPA / Play
25
25
EPA / Pass
14
26
EPA / Rush
29
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
10
Interceptions / Game
17
25
Fumbles / Game
25
9
Turnover EPA / Game
6
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
30
4th Down Efficiency
6
32
RZ Efficiency
17
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
1-9
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Commanders
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U