nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. 49ers @ commanders week 6, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

SF logo
SF49ers
0-5
24
TBD
FedExField
68°F
4 mph
26
WASCommanders
2-2
WAS logo
TBD
FedExField
68°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
0
7
10
7
24
Commanders
7
10
0
9
26

Spread

SF logo
+11

Total

OVER
46

Game Statistics

General
49ers logo
Commanders logo
Total Yards
335
419
Total Plays
70
71
Yards / Play
4.8
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.03
Passing Yards
250
325
Comp/Att
23/47(49%)
25/37(68%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
8.8
EPA / Pass
-0.02
+0.26
Rushing Yards
85
94
Rush Attempts
20
33
Yards / Rush
4.3
2.8
EPA / Rush
+0.22
-0.29
Downs & Conversions
49ers logo
Commanders logo
1st Downs
21
25
Passing 1st downs
12
17
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
35%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
17
14
Red Zone %
100%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
49ers logo
Commanders logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-0.12
-9.42
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-29
-5
Sack EPA
-5.53
-0.93
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
40
43
Penalty EPA
-6.36
-6.60

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
WAS logo
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-11.0
Model
-11.0

Win Probability

Market81.7%
Model81.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+237
Home nfelo
1,505
Away nfelo
1,392
Home Field
+105.9
Base HFA
+58.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+16.6
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+31.2
Net QB Adjustment
+18.3
Home QB Adjustment
+11.6
Away QB Adjustment
-6.7
Market Regression
+24.5
Final Difference
259.9
Model Spread
-11.0

Quarterbacks

B. Hoyer headshot

B. Hoyer

Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-6.7
Value
Ptile
09/25
4.0
78
10/02
4.3
81
10/09
10.4
97
10/16
0.4
52
10/20
-6.1
11
09/10
-6.0
16
09/17
-7.7
9
09/21
2.7
72
10/01
-7.7
9
10/08
4.2
81
K. Cousins headshot

K. Cousins

Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+11.6
Value
Ptile
11/24
13.6
99
12/04
0.0
48
12/11
-1.1
40
12/19
2.0
64
12/24
8.7
94
01/01
-3.8
21
09/10
-3.0
32
09/17
-0.9
45
09/24
10.2
97
10/02
5.5
86

Team Matchup Ranks

49ers Offense vs Commanders Defense
49ers logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
19
27
Yards / Game
12
22
Passing Yards / Game
11
15
Rushing Yards / Game
20
32

EPA

EPA / Play
16
13
EPA / Pass
17
8
EPA / Rush
9
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
12
Interceptions / Game
23
9
Fumbles / Game
13
9
Turnover EPA / Game
10
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
7
4th Down Efficiency
19
23
RZ Efficiency
28
11
Commanders Offense vs 49ers Defense
Commanders logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
16
25
Yards / Game
17
25
Passing Yards / Game
14
4
Rushing Yards / Game
28
22

EPA

EPA / Play
25
25
EPA / Pass
14
26
EPA / Rush
29
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
10
Interceptions / Game
17
25
Fumbles / Game
25
9
Turnover EPA / Game
6
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
30
4th Down Efficiency
6
32
RZ Efficiency
17
26

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SF logo

49ers

1-9
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/04
-20
L
L
U
12/11
-6
L
L
U
12/18
-28
L
L
O
12/24
1
W
W
O
01/01
-2
L
W
O
09/10
-20
L
L
U
09/17
-3
L
W
U
09/21
-2
L
W
O
10/01
-3
L
W
U
10/08
-3
L
L
O
WAS logo

Commanders

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/24
-5
L
W
O
12/04
-8
L
L
O
12/11
5
W
W
O
12/19
-11
L
L
U
12/24
20
W
W
O
01/01
-9
L
L
U
09/10
-13
L
L
U
09/17
7
W
W
O
09/24
17
W
W
U
10/02
-9
L
L
O