CHIBears
1-2
25
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
024
OAKRaiders
1-2
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
3
6
7
9
25
Raiders
7
7
7
3
24
Spread
+1.5
Total
OVER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
271
357
Total Plays
65
52
Yards / Play
4.2
6.9
EPA / Play
-0.10
-0.22
Passing Yards
202
--
Comp/Att
22/38(58%)
14/21(67%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
--
EPA / Pass
-0.03
-0.46
Rushing Yards
69
240
Rush Attempts
26
31
Yards / Rush
2.7
7.7
EPA / Rush
-0.25
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
17
Passing 1st downs
10
6
Rushing 1st downs
5
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
44%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
7
2
3rd Down Attempts
16
8
Red Zone %
25%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
4
Interceptions
1
3
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-5.72
-21.00
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-10
--
Sack EPA
-2.10
--
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
60
36
Penalty EPA
-5.48
-3.26
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
OAKRaidersFavored
Opening
+1.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-0.5
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model51.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-16
Home nfelo
1,421
Away nfelo
1,470
Home Field
+45.6
Base HFA
+38.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+6.9
Net QB Adjustment
-13.2
Home QB Adjustment
+1.6
Away QB Adjustment
+14.9
Market Regression
+32.6
Final Difference
7.6
Model Spread
-0.5
Quarterbacks
C. Williams
Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
+14.9
E. Smith
Proj. Value
-0.6
Team Elo Adj
+1.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
22
Yards / Game
19
21
Passing Yards / Game
25
27
Rushing Yards / Game
24
13
EPA
EPA / Play
24
18
EPA / Pass
13
25
EPA / Rush
30
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
8
Interceptions / Game
9
17
Fumbles / Game
18
9
Turnover EPA / Game
19
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
20
4th Down Efficiency
25
23
RZ Efficiency
15
4
Raiders Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
25
Yards / Game
18
27
Passing Yards / Game
14
2
Rushing Yards / Game
15
32
EPA
EPA / Play
28
20
EPA / Pass
23
17
EPA / Rush
32
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
21
Interceptions / Game
32
2
Fumbles / Game
7
9
Turnover EPA / Game
5
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
1
4th Down Efficiency
24
18
RZ Efficiency
21
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
2-8
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Raiders
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U