BUFBills
2-1
17
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
023
HOUTexans
2-1
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
0
10
0
7
17
Texans
0
7
4
6
17
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
316
301
Total Plays
69
63
Yards / Play
4.6
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.29
-0.23
Passing Yards
220
264
Comp/Att
21/44(48%)
25/37(68%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
7.1
EPA / Pass
-0.38
-0.29
Rushing Yards
96
37
Rush Attempts
23
23
Yards / Rush
4.2
1.6
EPA / Rush
-0.08
-0.29
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
19
Passing 1st downs
12
13
Rushing 1st downs
3
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
31%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
16
14
Red Zone %
33%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-13.21
-14.11
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-5
-4
Sack EPA
-2.12
-4.73
Penalties
8
8
Penalty Yards
40
90
Penalty EPA
-4.06
-8.51
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+66
Home nfelo
1,484
Away nfelo
1,494
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+2.9
Home QB Adjustment
+6.7
Away QB Adjustment
+3.8
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
E. Manuel
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
+3.8
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+6.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
6
Yards / Game
24
16
Passing Yards / Game
11
23
Rushing Yards / Game
25
9
EPA
EPA / Play
25
2
EPA / Pass
21
2
EPA / Rush
28
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
27
Interceptions / Game
11
3
Fumbles / Game
15
6
Turnover EPA / Game
24
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
2
4th Down Efficiency
20
7
RZ Efficiency
30
4
Texans Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
4
Yards / Game
16
4
Passing Yards / Game
32
14
Rushing Yards / Game
5
10
EPA
EPA / Play
19
1
EPA / Pass
17
1
EPA / Rush
14
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
15
Interceptions / Game
11
5
Fumbles / Game
19
10
Turnover EPA / Game
16
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
1
4th Down Efficiency
6
14
RZ Efficiency
15
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Texans
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U