CLEBrowns
4-6
13
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
029
HOUTexans
8-3
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
0
0
7
6
13
Texans
10
7
3
3
23
Spread
-5
Total
UNDER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
428
384
Total Plays
53
74
Yards / Play
8.1
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.18
+0.13
Passing Yards
--
197
Comp/Att
29/44(66%)
22/31(71%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.4
EPA / Pass
-0.24
+0.17
Rushing Yards
31
187
Rush Attempts
9
39
Yards / Rush
3.4
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.09
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
25
Passing 1st downs
15
12
Rushing 1st downs
3
11
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
25%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
2
8
3rd Down Attempts
8
16
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-16.29
--
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-27
Sack EPA
--
-6.30
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
45
77
Penalty EPA
-4.81
-5.46
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market67.1%
Model67.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+146
Home nfelo
1,522
Away nfelo
1,433
Home Field
+66.9
Base HFA
+57.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.9
Time Adj
-10.2
Net QB Adjustment
-9.9
Home QB Adjustment
+17.7
Away QB Adjustment
+27.7
Market Regression
-17.6
Final Difference
123.8
Model Spread
-5.0
Quarterbacks
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
+27.7
D. Watson
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+17.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
5
Yards / Game
11
14
Passing Yards / Game
30
22
Rushing Yards / Game
13
4
EPA
EPA / Play
24
5
EPA / Pass
23
13
EPA / Rush
14
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
1
Interceptions / Game
26
10
Fumbles / Game
9
4
Turnover EPA / Game
14
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
25
4th Down Efficiency
29
21
RZ Efficiency
5
31
Texans Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
21
Yards / Game
15
30
Passing Yards / Game
10
31
Rushing Yards / Game
7
28
EPA
EPA / Play
15
16
EPA / Pass
13
9
EPA / Rush
21
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
18
Interceptions / Game
6
3
Fumbles / Game
17
1
Turnover EPA / Game
32
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
6
4th Down Efficiency
14
27
RZ Efficiency
28
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Texans
8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U