TBBuccaneers
-
48
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
040
NOSaints
-
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
14
11
10
7
42
Saints
10
14
0
16
40
Spread
+10
Total
OVER
50
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
529
479
Total Plays
62
61
Yards / Play
8.5
7.9
EPA / Play
+0.41
+0.18
Passing Yards
--
434
Comp/Att
21/28(75%)
37/46(80%)
Yards / Pass
--
9.4
EPA / Pass
+1.04
+0.38
Rushing Yards
112
45
Rush Attempts
34
14
Yards / Rush
3.3
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.10
-0.42
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
26
Passing 1st downs
17
19
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
62%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
8
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
9
Red Zone %
50%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-12.93
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-7
Sack EPA
--
-2.28
Penalties
7
8
Penalty Yards
70
77
Penalty EPA
-6.08
-11.79
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market79.5%
Model79.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+196
Home nfelo
1,604
Away nfelo
1,463
Home Field
+40.5
Base HFA
+56.4
Divisional Adj
-25.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.7
Time Adj
-10.1
Net QB Adjustment
+13.6
Home QB Adjustment
+6.7
Away QB Adjustment
-7.0
Market Regression
+64.4
Final Difference
235.4
Model Spread
-10.0
Quarterbacks
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
-7.0
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+6.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
14
Yards / Game
2
12
Passing Yards / Game
1
17
Rushing Yards / Game
28
2
EPA
EPA / Play
12
11
EPA / Pass
9
21
EPA / Rush
26
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
30
Interceptions / Game
32
15
Fumbles / Game
25
7
Turnover EPA / Game
2
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
23
4th Down Efficiency
5
7
RZ Efficiency
15
23
Saints Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
31
Yards / Game
8
27
Passing Yards / Game
21
32
Rushing Yards / Game
9
24
EPA
EPA / Play
2
31
EPA / Pass
2
31
EPA / Rush
13
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
14
Interceptions / Game
4
26
Fumbles / Game
13
26
Turnover EPA / Game
23
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
22
4th Down Efficiency
2
7
RZ Efficiency
4
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Saints
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U