LACChargers
1-0
20
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
09
OAKRaiders
1-0
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
10
7
3
0
20
Raiders
3
3
0
3
9
Spread
-3.5
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
317
218
Total Plays
55
65
Yards / Play
5.8
3.4
EPA / Play
-0.11
-0.32
Passing Yards
236
150
Comp/Att
19/27(70%)
24/43(56%)
Yards / Pass
8.7
3.5
EPA / Pass
+0.38
-0.54
Rushing Yards
81
68
Rush Attempts
26
19
Yards / Rush
3.1
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.60
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
15
Passing 1st downs
8
8
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
36%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
4
9
3rd Down Attempts
11
18
Red Zone %
33%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.21
-10.93
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-6
-30
Sack EPA
-2.42
-7.67
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
33
47
Penalty EPA
-5.61
-5.42
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-51
Home nfelo
1,447
Away nfelo
1,537
Home Field
+34.4
Base HFA
+38.4
Divisional Adj
-17.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.4
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+4.2
Home QB Adjustment
+13.1
Away QB Adjustment
+8.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
J. Herbert
Proj. Value
+0.7
Team Elo Adj
+8.9
E. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.1
Team Elo Adj
+13.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
20
Yards / Game
11
12
Passing Yards / Game
2
19
Rushing Yards / Game
15
15
EPA
EPA / Play
22
14
EPA / Pass
22
22
EPA / Rush
12
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
7
Interceptions / Game
25
15
Fumbles / Game
16
18
Turnover EPA / Game
8
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
30
4th Down Efficiency
9
32
RZ Efficiency
26
16
Raiders Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
11
Yards / Game
30
4
Passing Yards / Game
21
4
Rushing Yards / Game
30
18
EPA
EPA / Play
29
10
EPA / Pass
28
4
EPA / Rush
32
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
5
Interceptions / Game
32
7
Fumbles / Game
5
32
Turnover EPA / Game
4
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
6
4th Down Efficiency
30
18
RZ Efficiency
28
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
8-2
O/U
Raiders
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U