INDColts
10-6
21
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
07
HOUTexans
11-5
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
14
7
0
0
21
Texans
0
0
0
7
7
Spread
+1.5
Total
UNDER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
422
322
Total Plays
67
68
Yards / Play
6.3
4.7
EPA / Play
+0.10
-0.17
Passing Yards
--
217
Comp/Att
19/32(59%)
29/49(59%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.4
EPA / Pass
+0.13
-0.26
Rushing Yards
200
105
Rush Attempts
35
16
Yards / Rush
5.7
6.6
EPA / Rush
+0.04
+0.38
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
20
Passing 1st downs
14
13
Rushing 1st downs
10
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
64%
23%
3rd Down Conversions
9
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
75%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.72
-3.14
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-18
Sack EPA
--
-3.93
Penalties
2
8
Penalty Yards
--
67
Penalty EPA
--
-7.09
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model53.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+49
Home nfelo
1,560
Away nfelo
1,551
Home Field
+42.1
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
-26.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
-6.2
Home QB Adjustment
+22.5
Away QB Adjustment
+28.7
Market Regression
-7.0
Final Difference
22.3
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+28.7
D. Watson
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+22.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
5
Yards / Game
7
14
Passing Yards / Game
24
22
Rushing Yards / Game
16
4
EPA
EPA / Play
10
5
EPA / Pass
10
13
EPA / Rush
18
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
1
Interceptions / Game
22
10
Fumbles / Game
21
4
Turnover EPA / Game
9
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
25
4th Down Efficiency
19
21
RZ Efficiency
7
31
Texans Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
8
Yards / Game
15
11
Passing Yards / Game
10
4
Rushing Yards / Game
7
9
EPA
EPA / Play
15
8
EPA / Pass
13
6
EPA / Rush
21
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
31
Interceptions / Game
6
13
Fumbles / Game
17
12
Turnover EPA / Game
32
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
18
4th Down Efficiency
14
7
RZ Efficiency
28
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
9-1
SU
6-3-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Texans
8-2
SU
6-3-1
ATS
5-5
O/U