INDColts
9-6
33
TBD
Nissan Stadium
53°F
4 mph
17
TENTitans
9-6
TBD
Nissan Stadium
53°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
7
10
7
9
33
Titans
0
4
7
0
11
Spread
-5
Total
OVER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
436
258
Total Plays
72
45
Yards / Play
6.1
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.06
-0.36
Passing Yards
278
--
Comp/Att
24/35(69%)
18/29(62%)
Yards / Pass
7.9
--
EPA / Pass
+0.20
-0.53
Rushing Yards
158
93
Rush Attempts
36
16
Yards / Rush
4.4
5.8
EPA / Rush
-0.17
+0.00
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
11
Passing 1st downs
15
6
Rushing 1st downs
8
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
38%
11%
3rd Down Conversions
5
1
3rd Down Attempts
13
9
Red Zone %
57%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
4
--
Red Zone Attempts
7
--
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-6.38
-10.11
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-7
--
Sack EPA
-2.51
--
Penalties
12
9
Penalty Yards
96
75
Penalty EPA
-8.47
-8.70
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-5.0
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market67.5%
Model57.9%
Spread Pick
Titans+5.0
Expected Value
+18.8%
Cover Probability
61.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+5
Home nfelo
1,545
Away nfelo
1,499
Home Field
+62.3
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
-26.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.2
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
-103.5
Home QB Adjustment
-75.7
Away QB Adjustment
+27.9
Market Regression
-33.8
Final Difference
-55.5
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+27.9
B. Gabbert
Proj. Value
-3.9
Team Elo Adj
-75.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
3
Yards / Game
7
7
Passing Yards / Game
24
7
Rushing Yards / Game
16
19
EPA
EPA / Play
10
13
EPA / Pass
10
14
EPA / Rush
18
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
10
Interceptions / Game
22
23
Fumbles / Game
21
19
Turnover EPA / Game
9
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
10
4th Down Efficiency
19
15
RZ Efficiency
7
2
Titans Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
8
Yards / Game
25
11
Passing Yards / Game
27
4
Rushing Yards / Game
6
9
EPA
EPA / Play
20
8
EPA / Pass
24
6
EPA / Rush
16
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
31
Interceptions / Game
14
13
Fumbles / Game
3
12
Turnover EPA / Game
18
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
18
4th Down Efficiency
15
7
RZ Efficiency
23
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
8-2
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Titans
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U