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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. commanders @ eagles week 13, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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WAS logo
WASCommanders
6-5
13
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
36°F
15 mph
28
PHIEagles
5-6
PHI logo
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
36°F
15 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
13
0
0
13
Eagles
7
7
0
14
28

Spread

PHI logo
-5.5

Total

UNDER
45

Game Statistics

General
Commanders logo
Eagles logo
Total Yards
235
438
Total Plays
42
73
Yards / Play
5.6
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.15
+0.13
Passing Yards
131
--
Comp/Att
17/25(68%)
27/40(68%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
--
EPA / Pass
-0.33
+0.34
Rushing Yards
104
130
Rush Attempts
14
33
Yards / Rush
7.4
3.9
EPA / Rush
+0.16
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
Commanders logo
Eagles logo
1st Downs
10
28
Passing 1st downs
4
18
Rushing 1st downs
4
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
20%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
2
7
3rd Down Attempts
10
13
Red Zone %
0%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Commanders logo
Eagles logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.81
-7.63
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-19
--
Sack EPA
-2.84
--
Penalties
10
5
Penalty Yards
69
38
Penalty EPA
-8.29
-5.77

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PHI logo
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5

Win Probability

Market68.0%
Model68.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+158
Home nfelo
1,505
Away nfelo
1,491
Home Field
+31.8
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
-26.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+112.4
Home QB Adjustment
+25.7
Away QB Adjustment
-86.7
Market Regression
-24.6
Final Difference
130.9
Model Spread
-5.5

Quarterbacks

D. McCoy headshot

D. McCoy

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-86.7
Value
Ptile
11/13
0.0
52
11/20
0.6
56
11/27
-1.8
37
12/04
-3.5
28
12/08
-6.7
11
10/27
1.9
65
11/30
4.5
80
12/07
-10.0
3
12/14
-3.2
29
11/22
-3.4
25
C. Wentz headshot

C. Wentz

Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+25.7
Value
Ptile
12/10
5.6
86
09/23
-3.5
25
09/30
3.5
72
10/07
4.2
75
10/11
7.3
91
10/21
4.2
76
10/28
3.2
70
11/11
4.9
79
11/18
-11.7
2
11/25
-0.9
40

Team Matchup Ranks

Commanders Offense vs Eagles Defense
Commanders logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
29
9
Yards / Game
28
23
Passing Yards / Game
26
29
Rushing Yards / Game
17
6

EPA

EPA / Play
25
22
EPA / Pass
28
22
EPA / Rush
12
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
22
Interceptions / Game
23
25
Fumbles / Game
3
25
Turnover EPA / Game
16
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
8
4th Down Efficiency
17
20
RZ Efficiency
24
1
Eagles Offense vs Commanders Defense
Eagles logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
20
15
Yards / Game
17
17
Passing Yards / Game
11
19
Rushing Yards / Game
30
16

EPA

EPA / Play
11
21
EPA / Pass
11
15
EPA / Rush
22
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
12
Interceptions / Game
21
11
Fumbles / Game
24
10
Turnover EPA / Game
12
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
29
4th Down Efficiency
16
2
RZ Efficiency
17
4

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

WAS logo

Commanders

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/16
-12
L
L
U
09/23
14
W
W
O
10/08
-24
L
L
O
10/14
6
W
W
U
10/21
3
W
W
U
10/28
7
W
W
U
11/04
-24
L
L
O
11/11
13
W
W
U
11/18
-2
L
W
O
11/22
-8
L
L
O
PHI logo

Eagles

4-6
SU
2-8
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/16
-6
L
L
O
09/23
4
W
L
U
09/30
-3
L
L
O
10/07
-2
L
L
U
10/11
21
W
W
O
10/21
-4
L
L
U
10/28
6
W
W
U
11/11
-7
L
L
O
11/18
-41
L
L
U
11/25
3
W
L
U