WASCommanders
6-5
13
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
36°F
15 mph
28
PHIEagles
5-6
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
36°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
13
0
0
13
Eagles
7
7
0
14
28
Spread
-5.5
Total
UNDER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
235
438
Total Plays
42
73
Yards / Play
5.6
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.15
+0.13
Passing Yards
131
--
Comp/Att
17/25(68%)
27/40(68%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
--
EPA / Pass
-0.33
+0.34
Rushing Yards
104
130
Rush Attempts
14
33
Yards / Rush
7.4
3.9
EPA / Rush
+0.16
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
10
28
Passing 1st downs
4
18
Rushing 1st downs
4
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
20%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
2
7
3rd Down Attempts
10
13
Red Zone %
0%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.81
-7.63
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-19
--
Sack EPA
-2.84
--
Penalties
10
5
Penalty Yards
69
38
Penalty EPA
-8.29
-5.77
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market68.0%
Model68.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+160
Home nfelo
1,508
Away nfelo
1,491
Home Field
+31.4
Base HFA
+57.2
Divisional Adj
-25.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+112.4
Home QB Adjustment
+25.7
Away QB Adjustment
-86.7
Market Regression
-24.6
Final Difference
130.9
Model Spread
-5.5
Quarterbacks
D. McCoy
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-86.7
C. Wentz
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+25.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
9
Yards / Game
28
23
Passing Yards / Game
26
29
Rushing Yards / Game
17
6
EPA
EPA / Play
25
22
EPA / Pass
28
22
EPA / Rush
12
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
22
Interceptions / Game
23
25
Fumbles / Game
3
25
Turnover EPA / Game
16
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
8
4th Down Efficiency
17
20
RZ Efficiency
24
1
Eagles Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
15
Yards / Game
17
17
Passing Yards / Game
11
19
Rushing Yards / Game
30
16
EPA
EPA / Play
11
21
EPA / Pass
11
15
EPA / Rush
22
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
12
Interceptions / Game
21
11
Fumbles / Game
24
10
Turnover EPA / Game
12
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
29
4th Down Efficiency
16
2
RZ Efficiency
17
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Eagles
4-6
SU
2-8
ATS
4-6
O/U