WASCommanders
6-9
20
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
38°F
10 mph
14
PHIEagles
4-10
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
38°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
10
7
0
3
20
Eagles
0
14
0
0
14
Spread
+6.5
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
248
216
Total Plays
62
65
Yards / Play
4.0
3.3
EPA / Play
-0.15
-0.28
Passing Yards
145
98
Comp/Att
22/32(69%)
13/33(39%)
Yards / Pass
4.5
3.0
EPA / Pass
-0.26
-0.50
Rushing Yards
103
118
Rush Attempts
27
29
Yards / Rush
3.8
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.18
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
16
Passing 1st downs
8
5
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
40%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-10.23
-12.56
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-17
-21
Sack EPA
-5.38
-4.39
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
56
41
Penalty EPA
-7.05
-5.66
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market71.4%
Model63.1%
Spread Pick
Eagles+6.5
Expected Value
+10.0%
Cover Probability
57.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-39
Home nfelo
1,439
Away nfelo
1,445
Home Field
+3.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-35.9
Home QB Adjustment
-4.7
Away QB Adjustment
+31.2
Market Regression
-79.8
Final Difference
-92.9
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+31.2
J. Hurts
Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
-4.7
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
20
Yards / Game
29
17
Passing Yards / Game
11
29
Rushing Yards / Game
26
22
EPA
EPA / Play
27
12
EPA / Pass
29
15
EPA / Rush
11
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
1
Interceptions / Game
27
29
Fumbles / Game
17
6
Turnover EPA / Game
10
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
8
4th Down Efficiency
21
3
RZ Efficiency
15
28
Eagles Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
5
Yards / Game
25
5
Passing Yards / Game
23
6
Rushing Yards / Game
10
15
EPA
EPA / Play
29
7
EPA / Pass
31
4
EPA / Rush
14
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
5
Interceptions / Game
31
7
Fumbles / Game
23
4
Turnover EPA / Game
5
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
7
4th Down Efficiency
26
2
RZ Efficiency
13
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
2-7-1
O/U
Eagles
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U