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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. commanders @ titans week 16, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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WAS logo
WASCommanders
7-7
16
TBD
Nissan Stadium
51°F
9 mph
25
TENTitans
8-6
TEN logo
TBD
Nissan Stadium
51°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
3
7
3
3
16
Titans
6
3
0
10
19

Spread

WAS logo
+11

Total

OVER
38

Game Statistics

General
Commanders logo
Titans logo
Total Yards
292
291
Total Plays
59
55
Yards / Play
4.9
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.14
Passing Yards
131
192
Comp/Att
13/23(57%)
17/25(68%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
7.7
EPA / Pass
-0.12
+0.23
Rushing Yards
161
99
Rush Attempts
34
27
Yards / Rush
4.7
3.7
EPA / Rush
+0.05
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
Commanders logo
Titans logo
1st Downs
17
20
Passing 1st downs
9
11
Rushing 1st downs
7
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
57%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
8
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Commanders logo
Titans logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-9.77
--
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-22
-19
Sack EPA
-2.92
-3.24
Penalties
8
2
Penalty Yards
49
--
Penalty EPA
-6.43
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TEN logo
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-11.0
Model
-11.0

Win Probability

Market81.7%
Model81.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+269
Home nfelo
1,552
Away nfelo
1,441
Home Field
+68.7
Base HFA
+58.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.4
Net QB Adjustment
+89.5
Home QB Adjustment
+0.4
Away QB Adjustment
-89.1
Market Regression
+12.5
Final Difference
259.9
Model Spread
-11.0

Quarterbacks

J. Johnson headshot

J. Johnson

Proj. Value
-3.8
Team Elo Adj
-89.1
Value
Ptile
10/04
-3.3
29
10/11
-2.7
34
10/18
-4.5
22
10/25
-8.4
6
12/04
0.8
57
12/16
-0.7
42
M. Mariota headshot

M. Mariota

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+0.4
Value
Ptile
10/07
-7.3
9
10/14
-11.6
2
10/21
2.5
67
11/05
3.6
72
11/11
2.3
65
11/18
-9.1
5
11/26
4.2
75
12/02
1.2
55
12/06
-2.6
30
12/16
-3.6
24

Team Matchup Ranks

Commanders Offense vs Titans Defense
Commanders logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
29
3
Yards / Game
28
7
Passing Yards / Game
26
7
Rushing Yards / Game
17
19

EPA

EPA / Play
25
13
EPA / Pass
28
14
EPA / Rush
12
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
10
Interceptions / Game
23
23
Fumbles / Game
3
19
Turnover EPA / Game
16
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
10
4th Down Efficiency
17
15
RZ Efficiency
24
2
Titans Offense vs Commanders Defense
Titans logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
27
15
Yards / Game
25
17
Passing Yards / Game
27
19
Rushing Yards / Game
6
16

EPA

EPA / Play
20
21
EPA / Pass
24
15
EPA / Rush
16
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
12
Interceptions / Game
14
11
Fumbles / Game
3
10
Turnover EPA / Game
18
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
29
4th Down Efficiency
15
2
RZ Efficiency
23
4

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

WAS logo

Commanders

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/14
6
W
W
U
10/21
3
W
W
U
10/28
7
W
W
U
11/04
-24
L
L
O
11/11
13
W
W
U
11/18
-2
L
W
O
11/22
-8
L
L
O
12/03
-15
L
L
U
12/09
-24
L
L
O
12/16
3
W
W
U
TEN logo

Titans

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/07
-1
L
L
U
10/14
-21
L
L
U
10/21
-1
L
W
U
11/05
14
W
W
O
11/11
24
W
W
U
11/18
-28
L
L
U
11/26
-17
L
L
O
12/02
4
W
L
O
12/06
21
W
W
O
12/16
17
W
W
U