WASCommanders
7-7
16
TBD
Nissan Stadium
51°F
9 mph
25
TENTitans
8-6
TBD
Nissan Stadium
51°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
3
7
3
3
16
Titans
6
3
0
10
19
Spread
+11
Total
OVER
38
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
292
291
Total Plays
59
55
Yards / Play
4.9
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.14
Passing Yards
131
192
Comp/Att
13/23(57%)
17/25(68%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
7.7
EPA / Pass
-0.12
+0.23
Rushing Yards
161
99
Rush Attempts
34
27
Yards / Rush
4.7
3.7
EPA / Rush
+0.05
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
20
Passing 1st downs
9
11
Rushing 1st downs
7
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
57%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
8
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-9.77
--
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-22
-19
Sack EPA
-2.92
-3.24
Penalties
8
2
Penalty Yards
49
--
Penalty EPA
-6.43
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-11.0
Model
-11.0
Win Probability
Market81.7%
Model81.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+271
Home nfelo
1,553
Away nfelo
1,439
Home Field
+67.9
Base HFA
+57.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
+89.5
Home QB Adjustment
+0.4
Away QB Adjustment
-89.1
Market Regression
+12.5
Final Difference
259.9
Model Spread
-11.0
Quarterbacks
J. Johnson
Proj. Value
-4.7
Team Elo Adj
-89.1
M. Mariota
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+0.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
3
Yards / Game
28
7
Passing Yards / Game
26
7
Rushing Yards / Game
17
19
EPA
EPA / Play
25
13
EPA / Pass
28
14
EPA / Rush
12
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
10
Interceptions / Game
23
23
Fumbles / Game
3
19
Turnover EPA / Game
16
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
10
4th Down Efficiency
17
15
RZ Efficiency
24
2
Titans Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
15
Yards / Game
25
17
Passing Yards / Game
27
19
Rushing Yards / Game
6
16
EPA
EPA / Play
20
21
EPA / Pass
24
15
EPA / Rush
16
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
12
Interceptions / Game
14
11
Fumbles / Game
3
10
Turnover EPA / Game
18
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
29
4th Down Efficiency
15
2
RZ Efficiency
23
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Titans
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U