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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cowboys @ panthers week 1, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DAL logo
DALCowboys
-
8
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
81°F
9 mph
16
CARPanthers
-
CAR logo
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
81°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
0
0
0
8
8
Panthers
0
10
0
6
16

Spread

CAR logo
-3

Total

UNDER
42.5

Game Statistics

General
Cowboys logo
Panthers logo
Total Yards
234
293
Total Plays
58
62
Yards / Play
4.0
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.28
-0.13
Passing Yards
138
146
Comp/Att
19/29(66%)
17/26(65%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
5.6
EPA / Pass
-0.31
-0.03
Rushing Yards
96
147
Rush Attempts
23
33
Yards / Rush
4.2
4.5
EPA / Rush
+0.05
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
Cowboys logo
Panthers logo
1st Downs
17
20
Passing 1st downs
10
9
Rushing 1st downs
4
9
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
18%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
2
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
100%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Cowboys logo
Panthers logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.52
-4.86
Sacks
6
3
Sack Yards
-32
-15
Sack EPA
-10.16
-4.22
Penalties
10
9
Penalty Yards
85
80
Penalty EPA
-7.70
-7.31

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CAR logo
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model57.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+16
Home nfelo
1,514
Away nfelo
1,571
Home Field
+66.8
Base HFA
+57.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.9
Time Adj
-10.2
Net QB Adjustment
+6.6
Home QB Adjustment
+3.1
Away QB Adjustment
-3.5
Market Regression
+12.7
Final Difference
55.3
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

R. Prescott headshot

R. Prescott

Proj. Value
+2.1
Team Elo Adj
-3.5
Value
Ptile
10/29
-3.3
29
11/05
7.0
90
11/12
-4.9
20
11/19
-11.6
1
11/23
-4.1
24
11/30
-1.0
45
12/10
7.7
93
12/17
-2.3
37
12/24
-7.4
10
12/31
0.1
53
C. Newton headshot

C. Newton

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+3.1
Value
Ptile
10/29
-2.2
37
11/05
3.0
74
11/13
13.0
100
11/26
-4.5
22
12/03
3.4
78
12/10
-1.4
43
12/17
7.6
92
12/24
-1.7
40
12/31
-8.6
6
01/07
4.3
82

Team Matchup Ranks

Cowboys Offense vs Panthers Defense
Cowboys logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
21
20
Yards / Game
22
16
Passing Yards / Game
15
23
Rushing Yards / Game
10
12

EPA

EPA / Play
19
27
EPA / Pass
17
27
EPA / Rush
7
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
26
Interceptions / Game
4
16
Fumbles / Game
13
10
Turnover EPA / Game
25
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
20
4th Down Efficiency
10
18
RZ Efficiency
26
28
Panthers Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Panthers logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
14
7
Yards / Game
9
8
Passing Yards / Game
17
16
Rushing Yards / Game
4
8

EPA

EPA / Play
9
12
EPA / Pass
14
19
EPA / Rush
4
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
7
Interceptions / Game
25
27
Fumbles / Game
9
12
Turnover EPA / Game
19
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
24
4th Down Efficiency
26
16
RZ Efficiency
12
7

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DAL logo

Cowboys

6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/29
14
W
W
O
11/05
11
W
W
U
11/12
-20
L
L
U
11/19
-28
L
L
U
11/23
-22
L
L
U
11/30
24
W
W
O
12/10
20
W
W
U
12/17
3
W
P
U
12/24
-9
L
L
U
12/31
6
W
W
U
CAR logo

Panthers

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/29
14
W
W
U
11/05
3
W
W
U
11/13
24
W
W
O
11/26
8
W
W
O
12/03
-10
L
L
O
12/10
7
W
W
O
12/17
7
W
W
O
12/24
3
W
L
U
12/31
-12
L
L
U
01/07
-5
L
W
O