MIADolphins
-
36
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
034
LACChargers
-
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
7
13
7
9
36
Chargers
7
10
7
10
34
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
50.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
536
433
Total Plays
65
76
Yards / Play
8.2
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.28
+0.17
Passing Yards
--
200
Comp/Att
28/45(62%)
23/33(70%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.1
EPA / Pass
+0.60
-0.04
Rushing Yards
70
233
Rush Attempts
20
40
Yards / Rush
3.5
5.8
EPA / Rush
-0.52
+0.32
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
30
30
Passing 1st downs
23
10
Rushing 1st downs
5
17
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
44%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
4
9
3rd Down Attempts
9
15
Red Zone %
60%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
3
4
Red Zone Attempts
5
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-10.07
--
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-29
Sack EPA
--
-6.80
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
38
70
Penalty EPA
-4.22
-8.65
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+38
Home nfelo
1,550
Away nfelo
1,559
Home Field
+57.6
Base HFA
+42.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+15.2
Net QB Adjustment
-10.4
Home QB Adjustment
-2.7
Away QB Adjustment
+7.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
T. Tagovailoa
Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
+7.7
J. Herbert
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-2.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
23
Yards / Game
3
28
Passing Yards / Game
16
21
Rushing Yards / Game
7
16
EPA
EPA / Play
4
20
EPA / Pass
4
24
EPA / Rush
9
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
12
Interceptions / Game
24
25
Fumbles / Game
20
8
Turnover EPA / Game
9
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
15
4th Down Efficiency
24
28
RZ Efficiency
3
12
Chargers Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
22
Yards / Game
18
11
Passing Yards / Game
17
24
Rushing Yards / Game
24
7
EPA
EPA / Play
22
22
EPA / Pass
18
13
EPA / Rush
31
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
29
Interceptions / Game
3
16
Fumbles / Game
27
5
Turnover EPA / Game
16
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
20
4th Down Efficiency
23
13
RZ Efficiency
13
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Chargers
5-5
SU
6-3-1
ATS
4-6
O/U