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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jaguars @ ravens week 15, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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JAX logo
JAXJaguars
1-12
14
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
39°F
3 mph
40
BALRavens
8-5
BAL logo
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
39°F
3 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
0
7
7
14
Ravens
7
17
7
7
38

Spread

BAL logo
-12.5

Total

OVER
49.5

Game Statistics

General
Jaguars logo
Ravens logo
Total Yards
267
409
Total Plays
56
64
Yards / Play
4.8
6.4
EPA / Play
-0.10
+0.35
Passing Yards
205
250
Comp/Att
22/29(76%)
19/26(73%)
Yards / Pass
7.1
9.6
EPA / Pass
+0.16
+0.43
Rushing Yards
62
159
Rush Attempts
22
37
Yards / Rush
2.8
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.29
+0.19
Downs & Conversions
Jaguars logo
Ravens logo
1st Downs
17
26
Passing 1st downs
11
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
11
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
42%
67%
3rd Down Conversions
5
8
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
5
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Jaguars logo
Ravens logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-3.74
-2.87
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-21
--
Sack EPA
-8.57
+2.11
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
67
40
Penalty EPA
-4.66
-3.12

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BAL logo
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-14.0
Current
-12.5
Model
-12.5

Win Probability

Market84.1%
Model84.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+264
Home nfelo
1,653
Away nfelo
1,383
Home Field
+6.3
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-11.7
Home QB Adjustment
+9.5
Away QB Adjustment
+21.2
Market Regression
-31.6
Final Difference
289.4
Model Spread
-12.5

Quarterbacks

G. Minshew headshot

G. Minshew

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+21.2
Value
Ptile
12/15
-1.1
46
12/22
-5.8
16
12/29
1.4
65
09/13
2.1
60
09/20
3.0
67
09/24
-3.3
22
10/04
2.2
61
10/11
0.5
49
10/18
-0.8
40
10/25
-5.3
14
L. Jackson headshot

L. Jackson

Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+9.5
Value
Ptile
09/28
-1.9
30
10/04
3.9
73
10/11
-3.8
20
10/18
5.7
82
11/01
-3.1
23
11/08
3.6
71
11/15
4.6
76
11/22
-2.7
26
12/08
5.1
78
12/14
8.4
93

Team Matchup Ranks

Jaguars Offense vs Ravens Defense
Jaguars logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
30
1
Yards / Game
27
6
Passing Yards / Game
19
1
Rushing Yards / Game
29
6

EPA

EPA / Play
30
4
EPA / Pass
26
7
EPA / Rush
17
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
15
Interceptions / Game
27
27
Fumbles / Game
20
8
Turnover EPA / Game
11
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
2
4th Down Efficiency
31
10
RZ Efficiency
14
15
Ravens Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Ravens logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
9
31
Yards / Game
19
31
Passing Yards / Game
30
23
Rushing Yards / Game
1
30

EPA

EPA / Play
7
30
EPA / Pass
19
30
EPA / Rush
1
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
7
Interceptions / Game
14
16
Fumbles / Game
16
28
Turnover EPA / Game
25
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
21
4th Down Efficiency
16
26
RZ Efficiency
17
24

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

JAX logo

Jaguars

0-10
SU
4-6
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/04
-8
L
L
O
10/11
-16
L
L
U
10/18
-18
L
L
U
10/25
-10
L
L
O
11/08
-2
L
W
O
11/15
-4
L
W
U
11/22
-24
L
L
U
11/29
-2
L
W
O
12/06
-3
L
W
P
12/13
-21
L
L
U
BAL logo

Ravens

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/04
14
W
L
O
10/11
24
W
W
U
10/18
2
W
L
O
11/01
-4
L
L
O
11/08
14
W
W
U
11/15
-6
L
L
U
11/22
-6
L
L
O
12/02
-5
L
W
U
12/08
17
W
W
O
12/14
5
W
W
O