JAXJaguars
1-12
14
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
39°F
3 mph
40
BALRavens
8-5
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
39°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
0
7
7
14
Ravens
7
17
7
7
38
Spread
-12.5
Total
OVER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
267
409
Total Plays
56
64
Yards / Play
4.8
6.4
EPA / Play
-0.10
+0.35
Passing Yards
205
250
Comp/Att
22/29(76%)
19/26(73%)
Yards / Pass
7.1
9.6
EPA / Pass
+0.16
+0.43
Rushing Yards
62
159
Rush Attempts
22
37
Yards / Rush
2.8
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.29
+0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
26
Passing 1st downs
11
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
11
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
42%
67%
3rd Down Conversions
5
8
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
5
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-3.74
-2.87
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-21
--
Sack EPA
-8.57
+2.11
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
67
40
Penalty EPA
-4.66
-3.12
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-14.0
Current
-12.5
Model
-12.5
Win Probability
Market84.1%
Model84.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+266
Home nfelo
1,654
Away nfelo
1,382
Home Field
+6.3
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-11.7
Home QB Adjustment
+9.5
Away QB Adjustment
+21.2
Market Regression
-32.0
Final Difference
289.4
Model Spread
-12.5
Quarterbacks
G. Minshew
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
+21.2
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+5.8
Team Elo Adj
+9.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
1
Yards / Game
27
6
Passing Yards / Game
19
1
Rushing Yards / Game
29
6
EPA
EPA / Play
30
4
EPA / Pass
26
7
EPA / Rush
17
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
15
Interceptions / Game
27
27
Fumbles / Game
20
8
Turnover EPA / Game
11
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
2
4th Down Efficiency
31
10
RZ Efficiency
14
15
Ravens Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
31
Yards / Game
19
31
Passing Yards / Game
30
23
Rushing Yards / Game
1
30
EPA
EPA / Play
7
30
EPA / Pass
19
30
EPA / Rush
1
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
7
Interceptions / Game
14
16
Fumbles / Game
16
28
Turnover EPA / Game
25
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
21
4th Down Efficiency
16
26
RZ Efficiency
17
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
0-10
SU
4-6
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Ravens
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U