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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. panthers @ saints week 18, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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CAR logo
CARPanthers
11-5
26
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0
31
NOSaints
11-5
NO logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
0
9
3
14
26
Saints
7
14
3
7
31

Spread

CAR logo
+6.5

Total

OVER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
Panthers logo
Saints logo
Total Yards
413
410
Total Plays
71
56
Yards / Play
5.8
7.3
EPA / Play
+0.12
+0.18
Passing Yards
306
369
Comp/Att
24/41(59%)
23/33(70%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
11.2
EPA / Pass
+0.17
+0.50
Rushing Yards
107
41
Rush Attempts
26
22
Yards / Rush
4.1
1.9
EPA / Rush
-0.04
-0.34
Downs & Conversions
Panthers logo
Saints logo
1st Downs
24
21
Passing 1st downs
16
17
Rushing 1st downs
5
3
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
47%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
8
2
3rd Down Attempts
17
8
Red Zone %
25%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Panthers logo
Saints logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-1.26
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-43
-7
Sack EPA
-7.51
-2.44
Penalties
2
7
Penalty Yards
18
96
Penalty EPA
-1.95
-11.95

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NO logo
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+159
Home nfelo
1,622
Away nfelo
1,525
Home Field
+61.1
Base HFA
+56.8
Divisional Adj
-25.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.8
Time Adj
+10.2
Net QB Adjustment
-13.9
Home QB Adjustment
-8.1
Away QB Adjustment
+5.8
Market Regression
+14.1
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5

Quarterbacks

C. Newton headshot

C. Newton

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+5.8
Value
Ptile
10/22
-6.1
15
10/29
-2.2
37
11/05
3.0
74
11/13
13.0
100
11/26
-4.5
22
12/03
3.4
78
12/10
-1.4
43
12/17
7.6
92
12/24
-1.7
40
12/31
-8.6
6
D. Brees headshot

D. Brees

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
-8.1
Value
Ptile
10/29
2.7
72
11/05
4.2
81
11/12
2.6
70
11/19
5.0
84
11/26
0.8
58
12/03
2.0
67
12/07
1.8
66
12/17
4.1
81
12/24
-1.2
44
12/31
1.3
62

Team Matchup Ranks

Panthers Offense vs Saints Defense
Panthers logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
11
14
Yards / Game
16
19
Passing Yards / Game
25
32
Rushing Yards / Game
4
14

EPA

EPA / Play
12
15
EPA / Pass
15
14
EPA / Rush
15
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
31
Interceptions / Game
24
4
Fumbles / Game
3
27
Turnover EPA / Game
14
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
27
4th Down Efficiency
17
10
RZ Efficiency
21
14
Saints Offense vs Panthers Defense
Saints logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
4
13
Yards / Game
2
10
Passing Yards / Game
6
27
Rushing Yards / Game
6
3

EPA

EPA / Play
2
12
EPA / Pass
3
17
EPA / Rush
3
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
18
Interceptions / Game
6
24
Fumbles / Game
13
7
Turnover EPA / Game
26
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
12
4th Down Efficiency
1
7
RZ Efficiency
6
12

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CAR logo

Panthers

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/22
-14
L
L
U
10/29
14
W
W
U
11/05
3
W
W
U
11/13
24
W
W
O
11/26
8
W
W
O
12/03
-10
L
L
O
12/10
7
W
W
O
12/17
7
W
W
O
12/24
3
W
L
U
12/31
-12
L
L
U
NO logo

Saints

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/29
8
W
W
U
11/05
20
W
W
U
11/12
37
W
W
O
11/19
3
W
L
O
11/26
-6
L
L
U
12/03
10
W
W
O
12/07
-3
L
L
U
12/17
12
W
L
O
12/24
10
W
W
U
12/31
-7
L
L
O