CARPanthers
11-5
26
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
031
NOSaints
11-5
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
0
9
3
14
26
Saints
7
14
3
7
31
Spread
+6.5
Total
OVER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
413
410
Total Plays
71
56
Yards / Play
5.8
7.3
EPA / Play
+0.12
+0.18
Passing Yards
306
369
Comp/Att
24/41(59%)
23/33(70%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
11.2
EPA / Pass
+0.17
+0.50
Rushing Yards
107
41
Rush Attempts
26
22
Yards / Rush
4.1
1.9
EPA / Rush
-0.04
-0.34
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
21
Passing 1st downs
16
17
Rushing 1st downs
5
3
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
47%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
8
2
3rd Down Attempts
17
8
Red Zone %
25%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-1.26
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-43
-7
Sack EPA
-7.51
-2.44
Penalties
2
7
Penalty Yards
18
96
Penalty EPA
-1.95
-11.95
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+158
Home nfelo
1,624
Away nfelo
1,527
Home Field
+60.3
Base HFA
+56.0
Divisional Adj
-25.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.6
Time Adj
+10.0
Net QB Adjustment
-13.9
Home QB Adjustment
-8.1
Away QB Adjustment
+5.8
Market Regression
+14.1
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+5.8
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
-8.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
14
Yards / Game
16
19
Passing Yards / Game
25
32
Rushing Yards / Game
4
14
EPA
EPA / Play
12
15
EPA / Pass
15
14
EPA / Rush
15
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
31
Interceptions / Game
24
4
Fumbles / Game
3
27
Turnover EPA / Game
14
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
27
4th Down Efficiency
17
10
RZ Efficiency
21
14
Saints Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
13
Yards / Game
2
10
Passing Yards / Game
6
27
Rushing Yards / Game
6
3
EPA
EPA / Play
2
12
EPA / Pass
3
17
EPA / Rush
3
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
18
Interceptions / Game
6
24
Fumbles / Game
13
7
Turnover EPA / Game
26
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
12
4th Down Efficiency
1
7
RZ Efficiency
6
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Saints
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U