OAKRaiders
1-3
+7.0
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0-7.0
INDColts
3-1
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+167
Home nfelo
1,495
Away nfelo
1,421
Home Field
+72.9
Base HFA
+38.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.5
Time Adj
+20.8
Net QB Adjustment
+19.7
Home QB Adjustment
+17.0
Away QB Adjustment
-2.7
Market Regression
+15.5
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
E. Smith
Proj. Value
-0.6
Team Elo Adj
-2.7
D. Jones
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+17.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
12
Yards / Game
18
17
Passing Yards / Game
14
14
Rushing Yards / Game
15
8
EPA
EPA / Play
28
15
EPA / Pass
23
12
EPA / Rush
32
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
29
Interceptions / Game
32
6
Fumbles / Game
7
9
Turnover EPA / Game
5
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
21
4th Down Efficiency
24
10
RZ Efficiency
21
32
Colts Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
22
Yards / Game
3
21
Passing Yards / Game
11
27
Rushing Yards / Game
8
13
EPA
EPA / Play
2
18
EPA / Pass
4
25
EPA / Rush
5
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
8
Interceptions / Game
9
17
Fumbles / Game
7
9
Turnover EPA / Game
28
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
20
4th Down Efficiency
7
23
RZ Efficiency
24
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Colts
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
6-3-1
O/U