OAKRaiders
1-3
6
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
040
INDColts
3-1
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
3
0
0
3
6
Colts
0
20
20
0
40
Spread
-7
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
296
319
Total Plays
65
61
Yards / Play
4.6
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.28
+0.30
Passing Yards
190
--
Comp/Att
25/36(69%)
21/35(60%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
--
EPA / Pass
-0.30
+0.31
Rushing Yards
106
98
Rush Attempts
25
26
Yards / Rush
4.2
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.12
+0.24
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
24
Passing 1st downs
12
12
Rushing 1st downs
6
9
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
57%
80%
3rd Down Conversions
8
8
3rd Down Attempts
14
10
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
6
Red Zone Attempts
4
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-12.04
--
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-38
--
Sack EPA
-8.36
--
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
65
71
Penalty EPA
-5.79
-7.52
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+167
Home nfelo
1,495
Away nfelo
1,421
Home Field
+74.1
Base HFA
+39.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.7
Time Adj
+21.1
Net QB Adjustment
+19.7
Home QB Adjustment
+17.0
Away QB Adjustment
-2.7
Market Regression
+15.5
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
E. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.1
Team Elo Adj
-2.7
D. Jones
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+17.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
9
Yards / Game
30
19
Passing Yards / Game
21
30
Rushing Yards / Game
30
5
EPA
EPA / Play
29
11
EPA / Pass
28
7
EPA / Rush
32
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
18
Interceptions / Game
32
3
Fumbles / Game
5
11
Turnover EPA / Game
4
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
27
4th Down Efficiency
30
9
RZ Efficiency
28
24
Colts Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
20
Yards / Game
1
12
Passing Yards / Game
11
19
Rushing Yards / Game
3
15
EPA
EPA / Play
1
14
EPA / Pass
9
22
EPA / Rush
1
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
7
Interceptions / Game
16
15
Fumbles / Game
10
18
Turnover EPA / Game
16
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
30
4th Down Efficiency
2
32
RZ Efficiency
3
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Colts
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
6-3-1
O/U