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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. raiders @ commanders week 3, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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OAK logo
OAKRaiders
2-0
10
TBD
FedExField
76°F
0
27
WASCommanders
1-1
WAS logo
TBD
FedExField
76°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
0
0
7
3
10
Commanders
7
7
7
6
27

Spread

WAS logo
+3.5

Total

UNDER
53

Game Statistics

General
Raiders logo
Commanders logo
Total Yards
128
472
Total Plays
48
65
Yards / Play
2.7
7.3
EPA / Play
-0.36
+0.01
Passing Yards
96
356
Comp/Att
19/31(61%)
25/30(83%)
Yards / Pass
3.1
11.9
EPA / Pass
-0.74
+0.67
Rushing Yards
32
116
Rush Attempts
13
34
Yards / Rush
2.5
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.11
-0.36
Downs & Conversions
Raiders logo
Commanders logo
1st Downs
7
18
Passing 1st downs
3
14
Rushing 1st downs
2
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
0%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
--
7
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Raiders logo
Commanders logo
Turnovers
4
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-2.65
-4.90
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-22
-9
Sack EPA
-6.20
-2.38
Penalties
4
10
Penalty Yards
--
77
Penalty EPA
--
-9.22

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
OAK logo
OAKRaidersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-60
Home nfelo
1,496
Away nfelo
1,563
Home Field
+26.9
Base HFA
+58.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-31.3
Net QB Adjustment
-20.9
Home QB Adjustment
-1.5
Away QB Adjustment
+19.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5

Quarterbacks

D. Carr headshot

D. Carr

Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
+19.4
Value
Ptile
10/30
14.4
100
11/06
-1.3
38
11/21
5.4
84
11/27
2.1
65
12/04
2.8
71
12/08
-8.2
4
12/18
-2.8
28
12/24
5.1
83
09/10
2.9
73
09/17
7.3
91
K. Cousins headshot

K. Cousins

Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
-1.5
Value
Ptile
11/13
4.6
82
11/20
7.0
90
11/24
13.6
99
12/04
0.0
48
12/11
-1.1
40
12/19
2.0
64
12/24
8.7
94
01/01
-3.8
21
09/10
-3.0
32
09/17
-0.9
45

Team Matchup Ranks

Raiders Offense vs Commanders Defense
Raiders logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
22
27
Yards / Game
18
22
Passing Yards / Game
30
15
Rushing Yards / Game
25
32

EPA

EPA / Play
15
13
EPA / Pass
16
8
EPA / Rush
22
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
12
Interceptions / Game
20
9
Fumbles / Game
31
9
Turnover EPA / Game
13
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
7
4th Down Efficiency
27
23
RZ Efficiency
8
11
Commanders Offense vs Raiders Defense
Commanders logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
16
20
Yards / Game
17
24
Passing Yards / Game
14
23
Rushing Yards / Game
28
11

EPA

EPA / Play
25
31
EPA / Pass
14
31
EPA / Rush
29
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
30
Interceptions / Game
17
32
Fumbles / Game
25
18
Turnover EPA / Game
6
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
25
4th Down Efficiency
6
30
RZ Efficiency
17
8

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

OAK logo

Raiders

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/21
7
W
W
O
11/27
3
W
L
O
12/04
14
W
W
O
12/08
-8
L
L
U
12/18
3
W
W
U
12/24
8
W
W
O
01/01
-18
L
L
U
01/07
-13
L
L
O
09/10
10
W
W
U
09/17
25
W
W
O
WAS logo

Commanders

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/13
6
W
W
O
11/20
18
W
W
O
11/24
-5
L
W
O
12/04
-8
L
L
O
12/11
5
W
W
O
12/19
-11
L
L
U
12/24
20
W
W
O
01/01
-9
L
L
U
09/10
-13
L
L
U
09/17
7
W
W
O