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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. ravens @ colts week 9, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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BAL logo
BALRavens
5-2
24
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0
10
INDColts
5-2
IND logo
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
1
0
7
10
18
Colts
7
3
0
0
10

Spread

BAL logo
-1

Total

UNDER
48

Game Statistics

General
Ravens logo
Colts logo
Total Yards
266
339
Total Plays
63
65
Yards / Play
4.2
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.06
-0.35
Passing Yards
156
--
Comp/Att
19/23(83%)
25/44(57%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
--
EPA / Pass
+0.32
-0.32
Rushing Yards
110
112
Rush Attempts
38
21
Yards / Rush
2.9
5.3
EPA / Rush
-0.20
-0.44
Downs & Conversions
Ravens logo
Colts logo
1st Downs
19
20
Passing 1st downs
9
11
Rushing 1st downs
9
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
38%
17%
3rd Down Conversions
5
2
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Ravens logo
Colts logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-7.37
-13.87
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-14
--
Sack EPA
-1.94
--
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
55
30
Penalty EPA
-6.15
-3.70

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BAL logo
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.5

Win Probability

Market52.3%
Model53.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-70
Home nfelo
1,566
Away nfelo
1,663
Home Field
+8.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+17.6
Home QB Adjustment
+11.3
Away QB Adjustment
-6.2
Market Regression
+19.0
Final Difference
-27.1
Model Spread
+1.5

Quarterbacks

L. Jackson headshot

L. Jackson

Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
-6.2
Value
Ptile
12/12
11.0
99
12/22
10.7
98
01/11
2.8
71
09/13
8.0
91
09/20
-1.7
31
09/28
-1.9
30
10/04
3.9
73
10/11
-3.8
20
10/18
5.7
82
11/01
-3.1
23
P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+11.3
Value
Ptile
12/15
-2.5
34
12/22
-0.4
50
12/29
0.1
53
09/13
4.1
74
09/20
-1.3
34
09/27
2.3
62
10/04
-1.6
31
10/11
-6.1
11
10/18
5.6
81
11/01
2.4
62

Team Matchup Ranks

Ravens Offense vs Colts Defense
Ravens logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
9
11
Yards / Game
19
9
Passing Yards / Game
30
25
Rushing Yards / Game
1
2

EPA

EPA / Play
7
8
EPA / Pass
19
9
EPA / Rush
1
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
31
Interceptions / Game
14
11
Fumbles / Game
16
11
Turnover EPA / Game
25
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
18
4th Down Efficiency
16
6
RZ Efficiency
17
22
Colts Offense vs Ravens Defense
Colts logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
8
1
Yards / Game
7
6
Passing Yards / Game
22
1
Rushing Yards / Game
9
6

EPA

EPA / Play
9
4
EPA / Pass
7
7
EPA / Rush
15
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
15
Interceptions / Game
10
27
Fumbles / Game
1
8
Turnover EPA / Game
28
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
2
4th Down Efficiency
10
10
RZ Efficiency
20
15

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BAL logo

Ravens

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/22
16
W
W
U
12/29
18
W
W
O
01/11
-16
L
L
U
09/13
32
W
W
U
09/20
17
W
W
U
09/28
-14
L
L
U
10/04
14
W
L
O
10/11
24
W
W
U
10/18
2
W
L
O
11/01
-4
L
L
O
IND logo

Colts

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/16
-27
L
L
U
12/22
32
W
W
U
12/29
-18
L
L
O
09/13
-7
L
L
O
09/20
17
W
W
U
09/27
29
W
W
U
10/04
8
W
W
U
10/11
-9
L
L
O
10/18
4
W
L
O
11/01
20
W
W
O