BALRavens
5-2
24
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
010
INDColts
5-2
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
1
0
7
10
18
Colts
7
3
0
0
10
Spread
-1
Total
UNDER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
266
339
Total Plays
63
65
Yards / Play
4.2
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.06
-0.35
Passing Yards
156
--
Comp/Att
19/23(83%)
25/44(57%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
--
EPA / Pass
+0.32
-0.32
Rushing Yards
110
112
Rush Attempts
38
21
Yards / Rush
2.9
5.3
EPA / Rush
-0.20
-0.44
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
20
Passing 1st downs
9
11
Rushing 1st downs
9
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
38%
17%
3rd Down Conversions
5
2
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-7.37
-13.87
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-14
--
Sack EPA
-1.94
--
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
55
30
Penalty EPA
-6.15
-3.70
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model53.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-68
Home nfelo
1,569
Away nfelo
1,663
Home Field
+8.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+17.6
Home QB Adjustment
+11.3
Away QB Adjustment
-6.2
Market Regression
+19.5
Final Difference
-26.6
Model Spread
+1.5
Quarterbacks
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+3.7
Team Elo Adj
-6.2
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+11.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
11
Yards / Game
19
9
Passing Yards / Game
30
25
Rushing Yards / Game
1
2
EPA
EPA / Play
7
8
EPA / Pass
19
9
EPA / Rush
1
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
31
Interceptions / Game
14
11
Fumbles / Game
16
11
Turnover EPA / Game
25
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
18
4th Down Efficiency
16
6
RZ Efficiency
17
22
Colts Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
1
Yards / Game
7
6
Passing Yards / Game
22
1
Rushing Yards / Game
9
6
EPA
EPA / Play
9
4
EPA / Pass
7
7
EPA / Rush
15
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
15
Interceptions / Game
10
27
Fumbles / Game
1
8
Turnover EPA / Game
28
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
2
4th Down Efficiency
10
10
RZ Efficiency
20
15
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Colts
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U