PITSteelers
11-2
17
TBD
Paycor Stadium
43°F
10 mph
27
CINBengals
2-10
TBD
Paycor Stadium
43°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
0
10
7
17
Bengals
3
14
0
10
27
Spread
+14.5
Total
OVER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
244
230
Total Plays
62
56
Yards / Play
3.9
4.1
EPA / Play
-0.28
-0.15
Passing Yards
158
78
Comp/Att
20/38(53%)
7/13(54%)
Yards / Pass
4.2
6.0
EPA / Pass
-0.33
-0.05
Rushing Yards
86
152
Rush Attempts
23
41
Yards / Rush
3.7
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.34
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
13
Passing 1st downs
6
6
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
25%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
14
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-14.59
--
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-12
-11
Sack EPA
-0.68
-2.42
Penalties
4
2
Penalty Yards
30
16
Penalty EPA
-6.77
-4.09
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-12.5
Current
-14.5
Model
-13.0
Win Probability
Market87.7%
Model85.3%
Spread Pick
Bengals+14.5
Expected Value
+13.2%
Cover Probability
59.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-273
Home nfelo
1,371
Away nfelo
1,558
Home Field
+3.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-89.1
Home QB Adjustment
-78.4
Away QB Adjustment
+10.7
Market Regression
-10.5
Final Difference
-305.1
Model Spread
+13.0
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+10.7
R. Finley
Proj. Value
-4.0
Team Elo Adj
-78.4
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
21
Yards / Game
22
25
Passing Yards / Game
31
2
Rushing Yards / Game
32
29
EPA
EPA / Play
19
26
EPA / Pass
15
24
EPA / Rush
32
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
6
Interceptions / Game
25
20
Fumbles / Game
9
24
Turnover EPA / Game
17
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
20
4th Down Efficiency
11
24
RZ Efficiency
8
26
Bengals Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
5
Yards / Game
30
3
Passing Yards / Game
27
8
Rushing Yards / Game
23
13
EPA
EPA / Play
25
2
EPA / Pass
23
2
EPA / Rush
30
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
32
Interceptions / Game
11
4
Fumbles / Game
27
11
Turnover EPA / Game
6
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
6
4th Down Efficiency
4
1
RZ Efficiency
29
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Bengals
2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U