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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. steelers @ bengals week 15, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PIT logo
PITSteelers
11-2
17
TBD
Paycor Stadium
43°F
10 mph
27
CINBengals
2-10
CIN logo
TBD
Paycor Stadium
43°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
0
10
7
17
Bengals
3
14
0
10
27

Spread

CIN logo
+14.5

Total

OVER
40.5

Game Statistics

General
Steelers logo
Bengals logo
Total Yards
244
230
Total Plays
62
56
Yards / Play
3.9
4.1
EPA / Play
-0.28
-0.15
Passing Yards
158
78
Comp/Att
20/38(53%)
7/13(54%)
Yards / Pass
4.2
6.0
EPA / Pass
-0.33
-0.05
Rushing Yards
86
152
Rush Attempts
23
41
Yards / Rush
3.7
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.34
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
Steelers logo
Bengals logo
1st Downs
12
13
Passing 1st downs
6
6
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
25%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
14
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Steelers logo
Bengals logo
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-14.59
--
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-12
-11
Sack EPA
-0.68
-2.42
Penalties
4
2
Penalty Yards
30
16
Penalty EPA
-6.77
-4.09

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PIT logo
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-12.5
Current
-14.5
Model
-13.0

Win Probability

Market87.7%
Model85.4%
Spread Pick
CIN logo
Bengals+14.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+13.2%
Cover Probability
59.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-276
Home nfelo
1,367
Away nfelo
1,557
Home Field
+3.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-89.1
Home QB Adjustment
-78.4
Away QB Adjustment
+10.7
Market Regression
-12.1
Final Difference
-306.7
Model Spread
+13.0

Quarterbacks

B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+10.7
Value
Ptile
10/11
6.1
84
10/18
-3.1
23
10/25
-2.1
29
11/01
0.8
50
11/08
8.0
92
11/15
6.8
87
11/22
1.8
57
12/02
3.1
67
12/07
2.9
66
12/13
-4.2
18
R. Finley headshot

R. Finley

Proj. Value
-4.0
Team Elo Adj
-78.4
Value
Ptile
11/10
-4.2
24
11/17
-11.8
3
11/24
-4.5
23

Team Matchup Ranks

Steelers Offense vs Bengals Defense
Steelers logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
12
21
Yards / Game
22
25
Passing Yards / Game
31
2
Rushing Yards / Game
32
29

EPA

EPA / Play
19
26
EPA / Pass
15
24
EPA / Rush
32
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
6
Interceptions / Game
25
20
Fumbles / Game
9
24
Turnover EPA / Game
17
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
20
4th Down Efficiency
11
24
RZ Efficiency
8
26
Bengals Offense vs Steelers Defense
Bengals logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
29
5
Yards / Game
30
3
Passing Yards / Game
27
8
Rushing Yards / Game
23
13

EPA

EPA / Play
25
2
EPA / Pass
23
2
EPA / Rush
30
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
32
Interceptions / Game
11
4
Fumbles / Game
27
11
Turnover EPA / Game
6
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
6
4th Down Efficiency
4
1
RZ Efficiency
29
5

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PIT logo

Steelers

8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/11
9
W
W
O
10/18
31
W
W
U
10/25
3
W
W
P
11/01
4
W
W
O
11/08
5
W
L
U
11/15
26
W
W
O
11/22
24
W
W
U
12/02
5
W
L
U
12/07
-6
L
L
U
12/13
-11
L
L
U
CIN logo

Bengals

2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/04
8
W
W
O
10/11
-24
L
L
U
10/18
-4
L
W
O
10/25
-3
L
W
O
11/01
11
W
W
O
11/15
-26
L
L
O
11/22
-11
L
L
U
11/29
-2
L
W
U
12/06
-12
L
L
U
12/13
-23
L
L
U