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  1. nfelo...
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  3. texans @ saints week 1, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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HOU logo
HOUTexans
-
28
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0
30
NOSaints
-
NO logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
0
14
7
7
28
Saints
0
3
14
13
30

Spread

HOU logo
+7

Total

OVER
52

Game Statistics

General
Texans logo
Saints logo
Total Yards
414
510
Total Plays
59
65
Yards / Play
7.0
7.8
EPA / Play
+0.22
+0.22
Passing Yards
234
362
Comp/Att
20/30(67%)
32/43(74%)
Yards / Pass
7.8
8.4
EPA / Pass
+0.25
+0.31
Rushing Yards
180
148
Rush Attempts
23
21
Yards / Rush
7.8
7.0
EPA / Rush
+0.40
+0.12
Downs & Conversions
Texans logo
Saints logo
1st Downs
22
25
Passing 1st downs
12
19
Rushing 1st downs
8
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
54%
64%
3rd Down Conversions
7
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Texans logo
Saints logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-2.39
-5.13
Sacks
6
1
Sack Yards
-34
-8
Sack EPA
-8.25
-1.57
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
69
48
Penalty EPA
-6.96
-4.18

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NO logo
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+165
Home nfelo
1,609
Away nfelo
1,525
Home Field
+79.0
Base HFA
+58.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.4
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+1.9
Home QB Adjustment
+7.7
Away QB Adjustment
+5.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0

Quarterbacks

D. Watson headshot

D. Watson

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+5.8
Value
Ptile
10/25
10.0
96
11/04
2.1
63
11/18
-5.5
15
11/26
6.3
86
12/02
-0.6
42
12/09
0.8
52
12/15
1.9
61
12/23
9.9
95
12/30
1.4
56
01/05
1.0
54
D. Brees headshot

D. Brees

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+7.7
Value
Ptile
11/04
11.7
98
11/11
10.2
96
11/18
10.7
97
11/22
-0.3
44
11/29
-5.1
18
12/09
1.0
54
12/17
-5.3
17
12/23
3.3
71
01/13
2.2
64
01/20
-0.1
45

Team Matchup Ranks

Texans Offense vs Saints Defense
Texans logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
12
14
Yards / Game
11
10
Passing Yards / Game
17
20
Rushing Yards / Game
9
4

EPA

EPA / Play
8
8
EPA / Pass
13
13
EPA / Rush
6
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
29
Interceptions / Game
18
16
Fumbles / Game
17
9
Turnover EPA / Game
18
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
8
4th Down Efficiency
18
11
RZ Efficiency
9
23
Saints Offense vs Texans Defense
Saints logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
5
23
Yards / Game
9
28
Passing Yards / Game
29
25
Rushing Yards / Game
16
24

EPA

EPA / Play
5
26
EPA / Pass
4
25
EPA / Rush
14
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
3
Interceptions / Game
4
23
Fumbles / Game
1
8
Turnover EPA / Game
32
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
31
4th Down Efficiency
24
9
RZ Efficiency
13
32

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

HOU logo

Texans

7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/25
19
W
W
O
11/04
2
W
W
U
11/18
2
W
L
O
11/26
17
W
W
O
12/02
16
W
W
U
12/09
-3
L
L
U
12/15
7
W
P
O
12/23
-2
L
L
O
12/30
17
W
W
U
01/05
-14
L
L
U
NO logo

Saints

7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/11
37
W
W
O
11/18
41
W
W
U
11/22
14
W
W
U
11/29
-3
L
L
U
12/09
14
W
W
U
12/17
3
W
L
U
12/23
3
W
L
O
12/30
-19
L
L
O
01/13
6
W
L
U
01/20
-3
L
L
U