HOUTexans
-
28
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
030
NOSaints
-
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
0
14
7
7
28
Saints
0
3
14
13
30
Spread
+7
Total
OVER
52
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
414
510
Total Plays
59
65
Yards / Play
7.0
7.8
EPA / Play
+0.22
+0.22
Passing Yards
234
362
Comp/Att
20/30(67%)
32/43(74%)
Yards / Pass
7.8
8.4
EPA / Pass
+0.25
+0.31
Rushing Yards
180
148
Rush Attempts
23
21
Yards / Rush
7.8
7.0
EPA / Rush
+0.40
+0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
25
Passing 1st downs
12
19
Rushing 1st downs
8
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
54%
64%
3rd Down Conversions
7
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-2.39
-5.13
Sacks
6
1
Sack Yards
-34
-8
Sack EPA
-8.25
-1.57
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
69
48
Penalty EPA
-6.96
-4.18
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+166
Home nfelo
1,612
Away nfelo
1,525
Home Field
+78.1
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+1.9
Home QB Adjustment
+7.7
Away QB Adjustment
+5.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
D. Watson
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+5.8
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+7.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
14
Yards / Game
11
10
Passing Yards / Game
17
20
Rushing Yards / Game
9
4
EPA
EPA / Play
8
8
EPA / Pass
13
13
EPA / Rush
6
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
29
Interceptions / Game
18
16
Fumbles / Game
17
9
Turnover EPA / Game
18
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
8
4th Down Efficiency
18
11
RZ Efficiency
9
24
Saints Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
23
Yards / Game
9
28
Passing Yards / Game
29
25
Rushing Yards / Game
16
24
EPA
EPA / Play
5
26
EPA / Pass
4
25
EPA / Rush
13
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
3
Interceptions / Game
4
23
Fumbles / Game
1
8
Turnover EPA / Game
32
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
31
4th Down Efficiency
24
9
RZ Efficiency
14
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Saints
7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U