TENTitans
5-5
17
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
034
HOUTexans
7-3
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
10
0
7
0
17
Texans
7
17
3
7
34
Spread
-3.5
Total
OVER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
365
462
Total Plays
52
62
Yards / Play
7.0
7.5
EPA / Play
-0.04
+0.25
Passing Yards
260
181
Comp/Att
22/23(96%)
19/24(79%)
Yards / Pass
11.3
7.5
EPA / Pass
+0.25
+0.34
Rushing Yards
105
281
Rush Attempts
23
34
Yards / Rush
4.6
8.3
EPA / Rush
-0.19
+0.22
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
19
Passing 1st downs
10
11
Rushing 1st downs
3
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
33%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-2.41
--
Sacks
6
4
Sack Yards
-43
-29
Sack EPA
-8.66
-8.91
Penalties
7
3
Penalty Yards
50
53
Penalty EPA
-6.05
-4.12
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+93
Home nfelo
1,511
Away nfelo
1,484
Home Field
+51.4
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
-25.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+15.0
Home QB Adjustment
+11.2
Away QB Adjustment
-3.8
Market Regression
-37.1
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
M. Mariota
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-3.8
D. Watson
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+11.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
5
Yards / Game
25
14
Passing Yards / Game
27
22
Rushing Yards / Game
6
4
EPA
EPA / Play
20
5
EPA / Pass
24
13
EPA / Rush
16
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
1
Interceptions / Game
14
10
Fumbles / Game
3
4
Turnover EPA / Game
18
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
25
4th Down Efficiency
15
21
RZ Efficiency
23
31
Texans Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
3
Yards / Game
15
7
Passing Yards / Game
10
7
Rushing Yards / Game
7
19
EPA
EPA / Play
15
13
EPA / Pass
13
14
EPA / Rush
21
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
10
Interceptions / Game
6
23
Fumbles / Game
17
19
Turnover EPA / Game
32
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
10
4th Down Efficiency
14
15
RZ Efficiency
28
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Texans
7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U