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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. vikings @ panthers week 14, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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MIN logo
MINVikings
10-2
24
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
41°F
5 mph
31
CARPanthers
8-4
CAR logo
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
41°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
7
6
0
11
24
Panthers
7
7
10
7
31

Spread

CAR logo
+2.5

Total

OVER
40.5

Game Statistics

General
Vikings logo
Panthers logo
Total Yards
358
345
Total Plays
72
63
Yards / Play
5.0
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.14
-0.07
Passing Yards
258
129
Comp/Att
27/45(60%)
13/25(52%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
5.2
EPA / Pass
-0.21
-0.10
Rushing Yards
100
216
Rush Attempts
21
36
Yards / Rush
4.8
6.0
EPA / Rush
+0.02
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
Vikings logo
Panthers logo
1st Downs
21
15
Passing 1st downs
14
7
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
47%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
15
Red Zone %
25%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Vikings logo
Panthers logo
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-12.04
-5.83
Sacks
6
2
Sack Yards
-24
-8
Sack EPA
-12.09
-0.65
Penalties
2
6
Penalty Yards
--
48
Penalty EPA
--
-4.64

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIN logo
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-0.5

Win Probability

Market56.6%
Model50.8%
Spread Pick
CAR logo
Panthers+2.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+2.6%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+27
Home nfelo
1,549
Away nfelo
1,641
Home Field
+85.9
Base HFA
+56.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.6
Time Adj
+10.1
Net QB Adjustment
+33.6
Home QB Adjustment
+16.5
Away QB Adjustment
-17.1
Market Regression
-10.0
Final Difference
-5.4
Model Spread
+0.5

Quarterbacks

C. Keenum headshot

C. Keenum

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-17.1
Value
Ptile
09/17
-4.6
21
09/24
11.3
99
10/01
-3.6
26
10/15
0.6
56
10/22
-0.9
46
10/29
1.4
63
11/12
5.4
86
11/19
6.8
90
11/23
5.8
87
12/03
2.9
73
C. Newton headshot

C. Newton

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+16.5
Value
Ptile
09/24
-9.6
4
10/01
8.9
95
10/08
6.6
90
10/12
-1.9
39
10/22
-6.1
15
10/29
-2.2
37
11/05
3.0
74
11/13
13.0
100
11/26
-4.5
22
12/03
3.4
78

Team Matchup Ranks

Vikings Offense vs Panthers Defense
Vikings logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
10
13
Yards / Game
10
10
Passing Yards / Game
26
27
Rushing Yards / Game
8
3

EPA

EPA / Play
11
12
EPA / Pass
9
17
EPA / Rush
26
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
18
Interceptions / Game
6
24
Fumbles / Game
11
7
Turnover EPA / Game
23
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
12
4th Down Efficiency
31
7
RZ Efficiency
12
12
Panthers Offense vs Vikings Defense
Panthers logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
11
2
Yards / Game
16
2
Passing Yards / Game
25
17
Rushing Yards / Game
4
2

EPA

EPA / Play
12
3
EPA / Pass
15
4
EPA / Rush
15
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
26
Interceptions / Game
24
13
Fumbles / Game
3
32
Turnover EPA / Game
14
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
1
4th Down Efficiency
17
12
RZ Efficiency
21
4

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIN logo

Vikings

9-1
SU
8-2
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/24
17
W
W
O
10/01
-7
L
L
U
10/09
3
W
L
U
10/15
13
W
W
U
10/22
8
W
W
O
10/29
17
W
W
O
11/12
8
W
W
O
11/19
17
W
W
U
11/23
7
W
W
O
12/03
5
W
W
U
CAR logo

Panthers

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/24
-21
L
L
O
10/01
3
W
W
O
10/08
3
W
W
O
10/12
-5
L
L
O
10/22
-14
L
L
U
10/29
14
W
W
U
11/05
3
W
W
U
11/13
24
W
W
O
11/26
8
W
W
O
12/03
-10
L
L
O