MINVikings
10-2
24
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
41°F
5 mph
31
CARPanthers
8-4
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
41°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
7
6
0
11
24
Panthers
7
7
10
7
31
Spread
+2.5
Total
OVER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
358
345
Total Plays
72
63
Yards / Play
5.0
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.14
-0.07
Passing Yards
258
129
Comp/Att
27/45(60%)
13/25(52%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
5.2
EPA / Pass
-0.21
-0.10
Rushing Yards
100
216
Rush Attempts
21
36
Yards / Rush
4.8
6.0
EPA / Rush
+0.02
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
15
Passing 1st downs
14
7
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
47%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
15
Red Zone %
25%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-12.04
-5.83
Sacks
6
2
Sack Yards
-24
-8
Sack EPA
-12.09
-0.65
Penalties
2
6
Penalty Yards
--
48
Penalty EPA
--
-4.64
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-0.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model50.8%
Spread Pick
Panthers+2.5
Expected Value
+2.6%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+26
Home nfelo
1,549
Away nfelo
1,641
Home Field
+84.8
Base HFA
+55.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.4
Time Adj
+9.9
Net QB Adjustment
+33.6
Home QB Adjustment
+16.5
Away QB Adjustment
-17.1
Market Regression
-10.0
Final Difference
-5.8
Model Spread
+0.5
Quarterbacks
C. Keenum
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-17.1
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+16.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
13
Yards / Game
10
10
Passing Yards / Game
26
27
Rushing Yards / Game
8
3
EPA
EPA / Play
11
12
EPA / Pass
9
17
EPA / Rush
26
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
18
Interceptions / Game
6
24
Fumbles / Game
11
7
Turnover EPA / Game
23
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
12
4th Down Efficiency
31
7
RZ Efficiency
12
12
Panthers Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
2
Yards / Game
16
2
Passing Yards / Game
25
17
Rushing Yards / Game
4
2
EPA
EPA / Play
12
3
EPA / Pass
15
4
EPA / Rush
15
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
26
Interceptions / Game
24
13
Fumbles / Game
3
32
Turnover EPA / Game
14
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
1
4th Down Efficiency
17
12
RZ Efficiency
21
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
9-1
SU
8-2
ATS
5-5
O/U
Panthers
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U