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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. vikings @ seahawks week 5, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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MIN logo
MINVikings
1-3
26
TBD
Lumen Field
54°F
10 mph
27
SEASeahawks
4-0
SEA logo
TBD
Lumen Field
54°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
7
6
6
7
26
Seahawks
0
0
21
6
27

Spread

MIN logo
+6.5

Total

UNDER
54

Game Statistics

General
Vikings logo
Seahawks logo
Total Yards
449
314
Total Plays
84
53
Yards / Play
5.3
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.08
+0.09
Passing Yards
248
190
Comp/Att
27/39(69%)
20/33(61%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
5.8
EPA / Pass
+0.30
+0.03
Rushing Yards
201
124
Rush Attempts
42
16
Yards / Rush
4.8
7.8
EPA / Rush
-0.09
+0.17
Downs & Conversions
Vikings logo
Seahawks logo
1st Downs
31
18
Passing 1st downs
17
12
Rushing 1st downs
12
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
43%
0%
3rd Down Conversions
6
--
3rd Down Attempts
14
7
Red Zone %
75%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Vikings logo
Seahawks logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-8.85
-3.76
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-1
-27
Sack EPA
-4.40
-5.30
Penalties
6
3
Penalty Yards
55
25
Penalty EPA
-4.46
-5.51

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SEA logo
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+152
Home nfelo
1,604
Away nfelo
1,500
Home Field
+8.5
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+2.3
Net QB Adjustment
+40.0
Home QB Adjustment
+26.6
Away QB Adjustment
-13.4
Market Regression
-29.8
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5

Quarterbacks

K. Cousins headshot

K. Cousins

Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
-13.4
Value
Ptile
12/02
0.7
58
12/08
1.4
64
12/15
1.3
63
12/23
-9.7
5
01/05
-1.6
42
01/11
-6.9
12
09/13
4.4
75
09/20
-15.2
0
09/27
-1.2
36
10/04
-1.6
33
R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+26.6
Value
Ptile
12/08
-5.0
20
12/15
3.8
78
12/22
-9.9
4
12/29
3.4
74
01/05
4.7
83
01/12
3.6
75
09/13
11.0
97
09/20
10.8
97
09/27
6.8
88
10/04
2.1
59

Team Matchup Ranks

Vikings Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Vikings logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
11
16
Yards / Game
2
22
Passing Yards / Game
5
31
Rushing Yards / Game
5
5

EPA

EPA / Play
13
14
EPA / Pass
9
22
EPA / Rush
8
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
4
Interceptions / Game
17
14
Fumbles / Game
27
17
Turnover EPA / Game
15
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
26
4th Down Efficiency
17
4
RZ Efficiency
6
18
Seahawks Offense vs Vikings Defense
Seahawks logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
7
29
Yards / Game
18
27
Passing Yards / Game
7
9
Rushing Yards / Game
12
27

EPA

EPA / Play
6
27
EPA / Pass
12
25
EPA / Rush
7
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
12
Interceptions / Game
22
9
Fumbles / Game
2
28
Turnover EPA / Game
14
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
9
4th Down Efficiency
18
30
RZ Efficiency
3
10

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIN logo

Vikings

4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/08
13
W
W
U
12/15
29
W
W
O
12/23
-13
L
L
U
12/29
-2
L
W
O
01/05
6
W
W
U
01/11
-17
L
L
U
09/13
-9
L
L
O
09/20
-17
L
L
U
09/27
-1
L
W
O
10/04
8
W
W
O
SEA logo

Seahawks

6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/08
-16
L
L
U
12/15
6
W
P
O
12/22
-14
L
L
U
12/29
-5
L
L
P
01/05
8
W
W
U
01/12
-5
L
L
O
09/13
13
W
W
O
09/20
5
W
W
O
09/27
7
W
W
O
10/04
8
W
W
U