MINVikings
1-3
26
TBD
Lumen Field
54°F
10 mph
27
SEASeahawks
4-0
TBD
Lumen Field
54°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
7
6
6
7
26
Seahawks
0
0
21
6
27
Spread
+6.5
Total
UNDER
54
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
449
314
Total Plays
84
53
Yards / Play
5.3
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.08
+0.09
Passing Yards
248
190
Comp/Att
27/39(69%)
20/33(61%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
5.8
EPA / Pass
+0.30
+0.03
Rushing Yards
201
124
Rush Attempts
42
16
Yards / Rush
4.8
7.8
EPA / Rush
-0.09
+0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
31
18
Passing 1st downs
17
12
Rushing 1st downs
12
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
43%
0%
3rd Down Conversions
6
--
3rd Down Attempts
14
7
Red Zone %
75%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-8.85
-3.76
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-1
-27
Sack EPA
-4.40
-5.30
Penalties
6
3
Penalty Yards
55
25
Penalty EPA
-4.46
-5.51
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+158
Home nfelo
1,610
Away nfelo
1,500
Home Field
+8.5
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+2.3
Net QB Adjustment
+40.0
Home QB Adjustment
+26.6
Away QB Adjustment
-13.4
Market Regression
-29.8
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-13.4
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+26.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
16
Yards / Game
2
22
Passing Yards / Game
5
31
Rushing Yards / Game
5
5
EPA
EPA / Play
13
14
EPA / Pass
9
22
EPA / Rush
8
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
4
Interceptions / Game
17
14
Fumbles / Game
27
17
Turnover EPA / Game
15
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
26
4th Down Efficiency
17
4
RZ Efficiency
6
18
Seahawks Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
29
Yards / Game
18
27
Passing Yards / Game
7
9
Rushing Yards / Game
12
27
EPA
EPA / Play
6
27
EPA / Pass
12
25
EPA / Rush
7
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
12
Interceptions / Game
22
9
Fumbles / Game
2
28
Turnover EPA / Game
14
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
9
4th Down Efficiency
18
30
RZ Efficiency
3
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Seahawks
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-4-1
O/U