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  4. 2024
SF logo

San Francisco 49ers

2024 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
6-11
nfelo Rating
147520th
Point Diff / Game
-2.820th
Net EPA / Play
-0.05220th

2024 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
NYJ logo
NYJ
W
32-19
+13
-3.5
W
6
2
MIN logo
MIN@
L
17-23
-6
-4
L
-12
3
LAR logo
LAR@
L
24-27
-3
-6
L
4
4
NE logo
NE
W
30-13
+17
-10.5
W
2
5
ARI logo
ARI
L
23-24
-1
-7
L
-26
6
SEA logo
SEA@
W
36-24
+12
-3.5
W
23
7
KC logo
KC
L
18-28
-10
-2.5
L
-15
8
DAL logo
DAL
W
30-24
+6
-5.5
W
8
9BYE WEEK
10
TB logo
TB@
W
23-20
+3
-6.5
L
7
11
SEA logo
SEA
L
17-20
-3
-6
L
-126
12
GB logo
GB@
L
10-38
-28
+6.5
L
76
13
BUF logo
BUF@
L
10-35
-25
+6.5
L
-39
14
CHI logo
CHI
W
38-13
+25
-3
W
20
15
LAR logo
LAR
L
06-12
-6
-3
L
-24
16
MIA logo
MIA@
L
17-29
-12
-1.5
L
-6
17
DET logo
DET
L
34-40
-6
+4
L
-71
18
ARI logo
ARI@
L
24-47
-23
+5.5
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.03
11th
EPA / Pass
+0.12
9th
EPA / Rush
-0.00
13th
Def. EPA / Play
+0.08
30th
EPA / Pass
+0.02
14th
EPA / Rush
+0.04
29th
Sack EPA
-3.62
8th
Turnover EPA
-7.06
7th
Point Differential
-2.8
20th
Points For
22.9
14th
Points Against
25.6
29th
Total Yards
376.3
4th
Passing Yards
234.1
2nd
Rushing Yards
127.2
11th
Total Yards Allowed
317.5
7th
Passing Allowed
147.5
2nd
Rushing Allowed
124.7
18th

Conversions For

3rd Down
43%
9th
4th Down
50%
23rd
Red Zone
57%
14th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
43%
25th
4th Down
65%
26th
Red Zone
68%
31st

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.5
27th
Created
1.1
18th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.9
26th
Created
0.6
18th

Fumbles

Lost
0.6
22nd
Created
0.4
19th