nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. panthers @ commanders week 15, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

CAR logo
CARPanthers
5-8
26
TBD
FedExField
32°F
8 mph
15
WASCommanders
7-5
WAS logo
TBD
FedExField
32°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
10
3
10
3
26
Commanders
3
6
0
6
15

Spread

CAR logo
+7

Total

UNDER
50.5

Game Statistics

General
Panthers logo
Commanders logo
Total Yards
438
335
Total Plays
72
61
Yards / Play
6.1
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.04
-0.32
Passing Yards
290
306
Comp/Att
21/37(57%)
32/47(68%)
Yards / Pass
7.8
6.5
EPA / Pass
+0.20
-0.20
Rushing Yards
148
29
Rush Attempts
33
13
Yards / Rush
4.5
2.2
EPA / Rush
-0.15
-0.30
Downs & Conversions
Panthers logo
Commanders logo
1st Downs
22
18
Passing 1st downs
15
14
Rushing 1st downs
6
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
27%
17%
3rd Down Conversions
4
2
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
25%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Panthers logo
Commanders logo
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-15.14
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-10
-9
Sack EPA
-2.12
-6.78
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
62
70
Penalty EPA
-8.56
-7.16

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
WAS logo
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model65.1%
Spread Pick
CAR logo
Panthers+7.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+12.1%
Cover Probability
55.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+57
Home nfelo
1,540
Away nfelo
1,570
Home Field
+58.1
Base HFA
+58.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+29.0
Home QB Adjustment
+19.3
Away QB Adjustment
-9.7
Market Regression
-7.8
Final Difference
108.2
Model Spread
-4.0

Quarterbacks

C. Newton headshot

C. Newton

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-9.7
Value
Ptile
09/18
8.6
94
09/25
-9.7
2
10/02
-1.5
37
10/16
1.2
58
10/30
0.4
52
11/06
-4.0
20
11/13
3.3
75
11/17
-5.7
13
11/27
-0.5
44
12/11
-6.4
10
K. Cousins headshot

K. Cousins

Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+19.3
Value
Ptile
10/02
0.0
49
10/09
1.4
59
10/16
1.4
59
10/23
5.9
86
10/30
7.7
92
11/13
4.6
82
11/20
7.0
90
11/24
13.6
99
12/04
0.0
48
12/11
-1.1
40

Team Matchup Ranks

Panthers Offense vs Commanders Defense
Panthers logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
15
18
Yards / Game
19
28
Passing Yards / Game
18
30
Rushing Yards / Game
10
24

EPA

EPA / Play
22
27
EPA / Pass
25
26
EPA / Rush
14
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
29
Interceptions / Game
28
18
Fumbles / Game
16
20
Turnover EPA / Game
5
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
32
4th Down Efficiency
7
20
RZ Efficiency
11
25
Commanders Offense vs Panthers Defense
Commanders logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
11
26
Yards / Game
3
21
Passing Yards / Game
12
32
Rushing Yards / Game
20
7

EPA

EPA / Play
5
11
EPA / Pass
5
17
EPA / Rush
6
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
14
Interceptions / Game
14
4
Fumbles / Game
16
8
Turnover EPA / Game
15
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
11
4th Down Efficiency
14
27
RZ Efficiency
30
2

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CAR logo

Panthers

4-6
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/02
-15
L
L
O
10/10
-3
L
L
U
10/16
-3
L
L
O
10/30
10
W
W
O
11/06
3
W
P
U
11/13
-3
L
L
U
11/17
3
W
L
U
11/27
-3
L
W
O
12/04
-33
L
L
O
12/11
12
W
W
U
WAS logo

Commanders

6-3-1
SU
8-2
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/02
11
W
W
O
10/09
6
W
W
U
10/16
7
W
W
O
10/23
-3
L
L
U
10/30
0
T
W
O
11/13
6
W
W
O
11/20
18
W
W
O
11/24
-5
L
W
O
12/04
-8
L
L
O
12/11
5
W
W
O