CARPanthers
5-8
26
TBD
FedExField
32°F
8 mph
15
WASCommanders
7-5
TBD
FedExField
32°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
10
3
10
3
26
Commanders
3
6
0
6
15
Spread
+7
Total
UNDER
50.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
438
335
Total Plays
72
61
Yards / Play
6.1
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.04
-0.32
Passing Yards
290
306
Comp/Att
21/37(57%)
32/47(68%)
Yards / Pass
7.8
6.5
EPA / Pass
+0.20
-0.20
Rushing Yards
148
29
Rush Attempts
33
13
Yards / Rush
4.5
2.2
EPA / Rush
-0.15
-0.30
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
18
Passing 1st downs
15
14
Rushing 1st downs
6
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
27%
17%
3rd Down Conversions
4
2
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
25%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-15.14
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-10
-9
Sack EPA
-2.12
-6.78
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
62
70
Penalty EPA
-8.56
-7.16
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model65.1%
Spread Pick
Panthers+7.0
Expected Value
+12.1%
Cover Probability
55.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+56
Home nfelo
1,541
Away nfelo
1,571
Home Field
+57.4
Base HFA
+57.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+29.0
Home QB Adjustment
+19.3
Away QB Adjustment
-9.7
Market Regression
-7.9
Final Difference
108.1
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-9.7
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+19.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
18
Yards / Game
19
28
Passing Yards / Game
18
30
Rushing Yards / Game
10
24
EPA
EPA / Play
22
27
EPA / Pass
25
26
EPA / Rush
14
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
29
Interceptions / Game
28
18
Fumbles / Game
16
20
Turnover EPA / Game
5
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
32
4th Down Efficiency
7
20
RZ Efficiency
11
25
Commanders Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
26
Yards / Game
3
21
Passing Yards / Game
12
32
Rushing Yards / Game
20
7
EPA
EPA / Play
5
11
EPA / Pass
5
17
EPA / Rush
6
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
14
Interceptions / Game
14
4
Fumbles / Game
16
8
Turnover EPA / Game
15
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
11
4th Down Efficiency
14
27
RZ Efficiency
30
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
4-6
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Commanders
6-3-1
SU
8-2
ATS
8-2
O/U