HOUTexans
1-1
27
TBD
StubHub Center
87°F
4 mph
20
LACChargers
1-1
TBD
StubHub Center
87°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
0
7
14
6
27
Chargers
7
10
0
3
20
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
376
366
Total Plays
55
69
Yards / Play
6.8
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.18
+0.02
Passing Yards
337
293
Comp/Att
25/34(74%)
31/46(67%)
Yards / Pass
9.9
6.4
EPA / Pass
+0.60
+0.09
Rushing Yards
39
73
Rush Attempts
19
18
Yards / Rush
2.1
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.43
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
22
Passing 1st downs
15
17
Rushing 1st downs
3
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
60%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
10
15
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-6.50
-4.61
Sacks
2
5
Sack Yards
-14
-25
Sack EPA
-3.37
-9.53
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
65
69
Penalty EPA
-3.50
-10.14
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model65.8%
Spread Pick
Chargers-3.0
Expected Value
+9.5%
Cover Probability
53.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+157
Home nfelo
1,595
Away nfelo
1,506
Home Field
+67.2
Base HFA
+57.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.2
Net QB Adjustment
+1.4
Home QB Adjustment
-0.3
Away QB Adjustment
-1.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
113.8
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
D. Watson
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-1.8
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-0.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
13
Yards / Game
11
6
Passing Yards / Game
17
3
Rushing Yards / Game
9
18
EPA
EPA / Play
8
22
EPA / Pass
13
22
EPA / Rush
6
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
21
Interceptions / Game
18
21
Fumbles / Game
17
30
Turnover EPA / Game
18
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
29
4th Down Efficiency
18
28
RZ Efficiency
9
21
Chargers Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
23
Yards / Game
10
28
Passing Yards / Game
3
25
Rushing Yards / Game
28
24
EPA
EPA / Play
11
26
EPA / Pass
11
25
EPA / Rush
25
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
3
Interceptions / Game
29
23
Fumbles / Game
18
8
Turnover EPA / Game
4
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
31
4th Down Efficiency
9
9
RZ Efficiency
22
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Chargers
7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U