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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jets @ titans week 13, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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NYJ logo
NYJJets
3-8
22
TBD
Nissan Stadium
70°F
13 mph
26
TENTitans
5-6
TEN logo
TBD
Nissan Stadium
70°F
13 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
4
6
6
0
16
Titans
0
6
7
13
26

Spread

NYJ logo
+9.5

Total

OVER
40.5

Game Statistics

General
Jets logo
Titans logo
Total Yards
280
403
Total Plays
65
60
Yards / Play
4.3
6.7
EPA / Play
-0.10
-0.14
Passing Yards
124
273
Comp/Att
17/30(57%)
20/35(57%)
Yards / Pass
4.1
7.8
EPA / Pass
-0.23
-0.24
Rushing Yards
156
130
Rush Attempts
33
22
Yards / Rush
4.7
5.9
EPA / Rush
-0.04
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
Jets logo
Titans logo
1st Downs
15
22
Passing 1st downs
8
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
5
3rd Down %
21%
9%
3rd Down Conversions
3
1
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
0%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Jets logo
Titans logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-1.00
-7.82
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-4
-9
Sack EPA
-1.94
-4.33
Penalties
11
8
Penalty Yards
96
75
Penalty EPA
-8.29
-5.48

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TEN logo
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-9.5
Model
-9.5

Win Probability

Market78.5%
Model78.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+172
Home nfelo
1,472
Away nfelo
1,357
Home Field
+89.7
Base HFA
+58.7
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.5
Time Adj
+10.5
Net QB Adjustment
-32.7
Home QB Adjustment
+3.7
Away QB Adjustment
+36.4
Market Regression
+14.3
Final Difference
222.3
Model Spread
-9.5

Quarterbacks

J. McCown headshot

J. McCown

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+36.4
Value
Ptile
10/15
-0.0
52
10/22
0.6
56
10/29
3.2
75
11/02
1.6
64
11/12
-7.2
12
11/26
4.5
83
12/03
10.9
99
12/10
-11.2
2
11/11
-10.6
3
11/25
-0.9
40
M. Mariota headshot

M. Mariota

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+3.7
Value
Ptile
01/13
-2.1
38
09/09
-7.1
10
09/30
7.0
90
10/07
-7.3
9
10/14
-11.6
2
10/21
2.5
67
11/05
3.6
72
11/11
2.3
65
11/18
-9.1
5
11/26
4.2
75

Team Matchup Ranks

Jets Offense vs Titans Defense
Jets logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
23
3
Yards / Game
29
7
Passing Yards / Game
23
7
Rushing Yards / Game
26
19

EPA

EPA / Play
29
13
EPA / Pass
27
14
EPA / Rush
31
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
10
Interceptions / Game
29
23
Fumbles / Game
22
19
Turnover EPA / Game
4
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
10
4th Down Efficiency
19
15
RZ Efficiency
30
2
Titans Offense vs Jets Defense
Titans logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
27
29
Yards / Game
25
25
Passing Yards / Game
27
11
Rushing Yards / Game
6
26

EPA

EPA / Play
20
18
EPA / Pass
24
20
EPA / Rush
16
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
19
Interceptions / Game
14
16
Fumbles / Game
3
18
Turnover EPA / Game
18
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
2
4th Down Efficiency
15
25
RZ Efficiency
23
9

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYJ logo

Jets

2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/16
-8
L
L
U
09/20
-4
L
L
U
09/30
-19
L
L
O
10/07
18
W
W
O
10/14
8
W
W
O
10/21
-20
L
L
O
10/28
-14
L
L
U
11/04
-7
L
L
U
11/11
-31
L
L
O
11/25
-14
L
L
U
TEN logo

Titans

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/16
3
W
W
U
09/23
3
W
W
U
09/30
3
W
W
O
10/07
-1
L
L
U
10/14
-21
L
L
U
10/21
-1
L
W
U
11/05
14
W
W
O
11/11
24
W
W
U
11/18
-28
L
L
U
11/26
-17
L
L
O