NYJJets
3-8
22
TBD
Nissan Stadium
70°F
13 mph
26
TENTitans
5-6
TBD
Nissan Stadium
70°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
4
6
6
0
16
Titans
0
6
7
13
26
Spread
+9.5
Total
OVER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
280
403
Total Plays
65
60
Yards / Play
4.3
6.7
EPA / Play
-0.10
-0.14
Passing Yards
124
273
Comp/Att
17/30(57%)
20/35(57%)
Yards / Pass
4.1
7.8
EPA / Pass
-0.23
-0.24
Rushing Yards
156
130
Rush Attempts
33
22
Yards / Rush
4.7
5.9
EPA / Rush
-0.04
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
22
Passing 1st downs
8
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
5
3rd Down %
21%
9%
3rd Down Conversions
3
1
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
0%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-1.00
-7.82
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-4
-9
Sack EPA
-1.94
-4.33
Penalties
11
8
Penalty Yards
96
75
Penalty EPA
-8.29
-5.48
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-9.5
Model
-9.5
Win Probability
Market78.5%
Model78.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+172
Home nfelo
1,474
Away nfelo
1,357
Home Field
+87.3
Base HFA
+57.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.9
Time Adj
+10.2
Net QB Adjustment
-32.7
Home QB Adjustment
+3.7
Away QB Adjustment
+36.4
Market Regression
+14.3
Final Difference
222.3
Model Spread
-9.5
Quarterbacks
J. McCown
Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+36.4
M. Mariota
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+3.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
3
Yards / Game
29
7
Passing Yards / Game
23
7
Rushing Yards / Game
26
19
EPA
EPA / Play
29
13
EPA / Pass
27
14
EPA / Rush
31
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
10
Interceptions / Game
29
23
Fumbles / Game
22
19
Turnover EPA / Game
4
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
10
4th Down Efficiency
19
15
RZ Efficiency
30
2
Titans Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
29
Yards / Game
25
25
Passing Yards / Game
27
11
Rushing Yards / Game
6
26
EPA
EPA / Play
20
18
EPA / Pass
24
20
EPA / Rush
16
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
19
Interceptions / Game
14
16
Fumbles / Game
3
18
Turnover EPA / Game
18
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
2
4th Down Efficiency
15
25
RZ Efficiency
23
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
5-5
O/U
Titans
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U